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1、CHINAOFFICEOUTLOOK2014-2015ACushman&WakefieldResearchPublicationCHINAOFFICEOUTLOOKTABLEOFCONTENTS2014REVIEW……………………………………….3BEIJING………………………………………………...5SHANGHAI……………………………………………7GUANGZHOU………………………………………..9SHENZHEN…………………………………………....11CHENGDU……………………………………………132014INVESTMEN
2、T…………………………………15OUTLOOK2015&2016……………………………162CHINAOFFICEOUTLOOK2014REVIEWChina’seconomycontinuedtocoolin2014andavarietyoffactorsarelikelytofurtherconstraineconomicgrowthinthecomingyears.ThisslowerexpansionfuelsincreasingconcernregardingothermeasuresofeconomichealthinChina,s
3、uchasemployment,householdincome,consumerspending,fiscalrevenue,andfinancialsystemstability.Asluggishresidentialrealestatemarket,highlevelsoflocalgovernmentdebtinsomecitiesandindustrialovercapacityremainmajorrisksforChina’seconomy.Nevertheless,thecentralgovernmentappearswilli
4、ngtoconfrontthesechallengeswhilepushingforwardwithliberalizingmeasuresintendedtounleashfurthergrowth.Despiteallofthis,GradeAofficemarketsinthecitiesofShanghai,Beijing,Guangzhou,ShenzhenandChengdugenerallysustainedstrongbusinessdemandonthebackofrelativelylimitedlevelsofsupply
5、.OverallEffectiveRent(GradeA),2007–2014450400350300250200150100500Q1-07Q2-07Q3-07Q4-07Q1-08Q2-08Q3-08Q4-08Q1-09Q2-09Q3-09Q4-09Q1-10Q2-10Q3-10Q4-10Q1-11Q2-11Q3-11Q4-11Q1-12Q2-12Q3-12Q4-12Q1-13Q2-13Q3-13Q4-13Q1-14Q2-14Q3-14Q4-14BeijingShanghaiGuangzhouShenzhenChengduEffectiveR
6、entiscalculatedbasedongrossfloorareaandassumingalettingtoamultinationalSource:Cushman&WakefieldResearchtenantoccupyingmidfloorsforatypicalthree-yearleasetermwithrent-freeperiodsfactoredin.ShenzhenofficeprojectsoutperformedthemarketwithVacancyRate,2007–201440.00%strongrentalg
7、rowthof11%duringtheyearwhilstelsewhere,GradeArentallevelsinotherfirst-tier35.00%marketsweregenerallystable.Nevertheless,Chengdu30.00%rentsslidby3.8%andmarketvacancyrosetoan25.00%unenviable28.4%.20.00%BeijingstillholdsthetitleofthemostexpensiveGradeA15.00%officemarketinChina,
8、withaveragerentalratesfinishing10.00%theyearatRMB377.5persquaremeterpermont
