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1、USConstructionMaterialsInitiatingCoverageofVMCandMLMwithOWonlargerAggregatesexposure;EXPandSUMatNNorthAmericaEquityResearch21March2019WeareinitiatingcoverageoftheUSConstructionMaterialssectorwithOWratingsonVMCandMLMasweliketheirlargeaggregatesexposurethatismoreexposedtoinfraspending,whichisgrowingm
2、orethanResandNon-Res.Theyarealsomoreexposedthanpeerstostateswithstrongergrowthfundamentals.WearealsoinitiatingcoverageofEXPandSUMwithNratingsastheyhavelowergrowthprofiles.Thesectorhasperformedwellthisyearat+17%onaverage(+4ppvsSPXand+5ppvsUSMSCIMaterials),excludingSUM,whichis+42%andistradingatitsaver
3、agehistoricalEV/EBITDA.Thisreportincludesextensiveanalysisonprices,volumes,costsandmarginsbutalsoonmarketshareevolution,AmericasConstructionMaterialsAdrianEHuertaAC*(52-81)8152-8720adrian.huerta@jpmorgan.comBloombergJPMAHUERTAFroylanMendez(52-55)5540-9482froylan.mendez@jpmchase.comJ.P.MorganCas
4、adeBolsa,S.A.deC.V.,J.P.MorganGrupoFinancieroanalysisonaperstatebasisanddetailedviewsontheResidential,Non-ResandInfrasectors.Bottom-upviews·Weseepricesandvolumesacceleratingthisyear.Onaggregatesvolumes,whilelastyearoursamplegrew3.1%(sameasfortheindustry),forthisyearweseeitgrowing4.9%,outpacingtheind
5、ustry’sexpectedgrowthof2.4%.Forcementvols,lastyearoursamplealsoperformedweakerthantheindustryat+1.4%,impactedbyadverseweatherespeciallyinTX,vs+2.2%fortheindustrywhileforthisyearweexpectittobe0.5ppabovetheindustry’s+2.2%.Onprices,aggregateswere+2.8%lastyear(belowthe+4%fortheindustry),andweexpect+4.8%
6、forthisyear,andoncementweexpect+2.9%thisyearvs+2%lastyear,whichwasonly0.3ppbelowtheindustry.·Marginsshouldimprovethisyearafterdisappointinginthepasttwo.HigherenergyanddistributioncostshaveimpactedmarginswithEBITDAmargins-1ppin2018andin2017afterposting+2.7ppin2016,andweexpectconsolidatedmarginstobe+1
7、.2ppthisyearmainlydrivenbystrongerpricingmomentumandlowerincreasesincashcosts(JPMcementenergycostinflationindexcouldbeflattishthisyearifitremainsatcurrentlevelsasofFeb2019)thanlastyear.·Weexpectstrong
