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1、2012IEEEfifthInternationalConferenceonAdvancedComputationalIntelligence(ICACI)October18-20,2012Nanjing,Jiangsu,ChinaStatisticalFeaturesofStrongWindovertheBohaiandYellowSeaandItsMultimodelEnsemblePredictionDuringBorealSummerXiefeiZhi,HuaZhuandYongqingYuwere
2、causedbythenortherliesduetothepassageofthecoldAbstract—BasedonthesurfacewindandgeopotentialheightfieldsoftheNCEP/NCARreanalysisdataduringfronts,andtheother10%werecausedbythenortherliestheperiodfromJanuary1,1980toDecember31,2009duringtheeastwardshiftofthecy
3、clones[2].Hence,andforecastdataoftheJMA,NCEPGFSandNOGAPSinvestigationoftheoffshorestrongwindsisofgreatmodels,statisticalfeaturesofthestrongwindhavebeenimportanceforthesecurityoftheassociatedindustryandinvestigated,andthebias-removedensemblemeansociety.(BRE
4、M)forecastexperimentoftheseasurfacewindhasStrongwindsmayleadtostormsurgesandalotofotherbeenconductedovertheBohaiandYellowSeaforthenaturaldisastersinthecoastalregions[3].Therefore,manyperiodfromJuly28toAugust10in2009.coastalcountriesandregionsattachgreatimp
5、ortancetotheTheresultsshowthatthestrongwinddaysoverthestudyofthestrongwinds,includingtheformationoftheBohaiandYellowSeahaveasignificantinterannualwindyweather,pathofthestrongwinds,theprevailingwindvariabilityandseasonalvariability.Onaverage,therearedirecti
6、on,theevolutionofextratropicalcyclones,andthe50strongwindeventswhichlastforatleast12hoursmovementanddevelopmentoftropicalcyclonesetc.[4].annually.Inaddition,strongwindyweathereventsoccurAseriesofstudiesshowthatthemultimodelensemblemostfrequentlyinwinterand
7、lessfrequentlyinsummer.forecastapproachisaveryeffectivepostprocessingtechniqueThestrongwindeventsinsummeraremainlyattributedabletoreducedirectmodeloutputerrors[5]-[12].Zhietal.[13]tothenorthwardmovementofthetyphoonsintheshowsthatthebias-removedensemblemean
8、methodisawesternPacific,whilethoseinwinteraremainlybroughtrelativelysimplemultimodelensembletechniqueandhasabythecoldfronts.ThefirsttwoEOFeigenvectorshigherforecastskillcomparedwithsinglemodelsintermsofdescri
