Probabilistic multimodel ensemble prediction of decadal variability of East Asian surface air temperature based on IPCC-AR5 near-term climate simulations.pdf

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1、ADVANCESINATMOSPHERICSCIENCES,VOL.30,NO.4,2013,1129–1142ProbabilisticMultimodelEnsemblePredictionofDecadalVariabilityofEastAsianSurfaceAirTemperatureBasedonIPCC-AR5Near-termClimateSimulationsWANGJia∗1,2(),ZHIXiefei1(),andCHENYuwen2()1KeyLaboratoryofMeteorologicalDi

2、sasterofMinistryofEducation,NanjingUniversityofInformationScienceandTechnology,Nanjing2100442ClimateCenterofJiangsuProvince,Nanjing210008(Received26July2012;revised11December2012;accepted17December2012)ABSTRACTBasedonnear-termclimatesimulationsforIPCC-AR5(TheFifthAssessmen

3、tReport),probabilisticmultimodelensembleprediction(PMME)ofdecadalvariabilityofsurfaceairtemperatureinEastAsia◦◦◦◦(20–50N,100–145E)wasconductedusingthemultivariateGaussianensemblekerneldressing(GED)methodology.Theensemblesystemexhibitedhighperformanceinhindcastingthedecadal

4、(1981–2010)meanandtrendoftemperatureanomalieswithrespectto1961–90,withaRPSof0.94and0.88respectively.TheinterpretationofPMMEforfuturedecades(2006–35)overEastAsiawasmadeonthebasisofthebivariateprobabilitydensityofthemeanandtrend.Theresultsshowedthat,undertheRCP4.5(Representa

5、tive−2ConcentrationPathway4.5Wm)scenario,theannualmeantemperatureincreasesonaveragebyabout−11.1–1.2Kandthetemperaturetrendreaches0.6–0.7K(30yr).Thepatternforbothquantitieswasfoundtobethatthetemperatureincreasewillbelessintenseinthesouth.Whilethetemperatureincreaseintermsof

6、the30-yrmeanwasfoundtobevirtuallycertain,theresultsforthe30-yrtrendshowedanalmost25%chanceofanegativevalue.Thisindicatedthat,usingamultimodelensemblesystem,evenifalonger-termwarmingexistsfor2006–35overEastAsia,thetrendfortemperaturemayproduceanegativevalue.Temperaturewasfo

7、undtobemoreaffectedbyseasonalvariability,withtheincreaseintemperature◦overEastAsiamoreintenseinautumn(mainly),fasterinsummertothewestof115E,andfasterstillin◦autumntotheeastof115E.Keywords:decadalclimateprediction,PMME,GED,surfaceairtemperature,EastAsiaCitation:Wang,J.,X.F.Z

8、hi,andY.W.Chen,2013:ProbabilisticmultimodelensemblepredictionofdecadalvariabilityofEastAs