Effect of climate change on air quality

《Effect of climate change on air quality》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在学术论文-天天文库。

1、AtmosphericEnvironment43(2009)51–63ContentslistsavailableatScienceDirectAtmosphericEnvironmentjournalhomepage:www.elsevier.com/locate/atmosenvEffectofclimatechangeonairqualitya,*bDanielJ.Jacob,DarrellA.WinneraSchoolofEngineeringandAppliedScience,HarvardUniversity,Cambridge,MA,USAbOfficeofResea

2、rch&Development,U.S.EnvironmentalProtectionAgency,Washington,DC,USAabstractKeywords:Airqualityisstronglydependentonweatherandisthereforesensitivetoclimatechange.RecentstudiesClimatechangehaveprovidedestimatesofthisclimateeffectthroughcorrelationsofairqualitywithmeteorologicalAirqualityvariabl

3、es,perturbationanalysesinchemicaltransportmodels(CTMs),andCTMsimulationsdrivenbyAirpollutionmeteorologygeneralcirculationmodel(GCM)simulationsof21st-centuryclimatechange.WereviewthesedifferentOzoneapproachesandtheirresults.Thefutureclimateisexpectedtobemorestagnant,duetoaweakerglobalParticula

4、temattercirculationandadecreasingfrequencyofmid-latitudecyclones.TheobservedcorrelationbetweenMercurysurfaceozoneandtemperatureinpollutedregionspointstoadetrimentaleffectofwarming.CoupledGCM–CTMstudiesfindthatclimatechangealonewillincreasesummertimesurfaceozoneinpollutedregionsby1–10ppboverthe

5、comingdecades,withthelargesteffectsinurbanareasandduringpollutionepisodes.Thisclimatepenaltymeansthatstrongeremissioncontrolswillbeneededtomeetagivenairqualitystandard.Higherwatervaporinthefutureclimateisexpectedtodecreasetheozonebackground,sothatpollutionandbackgroundozonehaveoppositesensiti

6、vitiestoclimatechange.Theeffectofclimatechangeonparticulatematter(PM)ismorecomplicatedanduncertainthanforozone.Precipitationfrequencyandmixingdepthareimportantdrivingfactorsbutprojectionsforthesevari-ablesareoftenunreliable.GCM–CTMstudiesfindthatclimatechangewillaffectPMconcentrationsinpollute

7、denvironmentsby0.1–1mgm3overthecomingdecades.WildfiresfueledbyclimatechangecouldbecomeanincreasinglyimportantPMsource.MajorissuesthatshouldbeaddressedinfutureresearchincludetheabilityofGCMstosimulateregionalairpollutionmeteorologyanditssensi