Interactive multiobjective agro-ecological land use planning:The Bungoma region in Kenya.pdf

Interactive multiobjective agro-ecological land use planning:The Bungoma region in Kenya.pdf

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1、EuropeanJournalofOperationalResearch158(2004)194–217www.elsevier.com/locate/dswO.R.ApplicationsInteractivemultiobjectiveagro-ecologicallanduseplanning:TheBungomaregioninKenyaab,*cPerJ.Agrell,AntonieStam,GuntherW.Fischer€aUniversiteCatholiquedeLouvain,CORE,Louv

2、ain-la-Neuve,BelgiumbDepartmentofManagement,UniversityofMissouri,CollegeofBusiness,418CornellHall,Columbia,MO65211,USAcInternationalInstituteforAppliedSystemsAnalysis,LandUseChangeProject,A-2361Laxenburg,AustriaReceived13July2000;accepted19March2003Availableonl

3、ine27August2003AbstractThedevelopmentofathirdworldcountryrequiresaconsciousbalancebetweendifferentplanningandpolicyissues,suchaspopulationgrowthrate,grossnationalincome,self-relianceandlong-termsustainableecologicaldevelopment.Thispaperreportsonacross-disciplina

4、ryprojecttodesignadecisionsupportsystem(DSS)thataimstoassistgov-ernmentpolicymakersinplanningtheregionalagriculturaldevelopmentoftheBungomaregioninKenya.TheDSSisbasedontheagro-ecologicalzones(AEZ)model,apreviouslydevelopednon-interactiveoptimizationmodelthatpro

5、videsanagro-ecologicalandeconomicassessmentofvarioustypesoflanduses,includingcash-crops,foodpro-duction,grazing,forestationandfarming.ThisworkextendsthedecisionanalyticscopeoftheAEZmodeltoexplicitlyincorporateamulticriteriaoptimizationformulationthatfacilitates

6、adirecttrade-offanalysisbetweenthevariousdecisioncriteriawithinauser-interactivedecisionsupportmodelingframework.TheDSSusesin-depthinformationabouttheBungomaregion,extractedfromalarge-scaleFAOdatabaseonKenyathatincludesinformationonvariousclimaticandsoilcharacte

7、ristics(e.g.,thermalandmoistureregime,soiltype,slopeclass)andsocio-economicdata(e.g.,projectedgrowthrateandproductdemandpatterns)for90000agro-ecologicalcells.Ateachstageoftheanalysis,oursystemoffersthedecisionmakerseveralalternativeplanningstrategieswithdifferent

8、suggestedlandusesforover100differenttypesofcrops,fuelwoodandlivestocklandutilizationtypesforevaluation,allowingthedecisionmakertotakeintoaccounttrade-offsbetweenanumberofplann

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