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1、TheFuturePOPULATIONofIndiaALong-rangeDemographicViewPopulationFoundationofIndiaPopulationReferenceBureauAugust2007PREFACEIndia’spopulationpassedtheonebillionmarkin2000and,thisyear,celebrateditsWearehappytohavecollaboratedwiththePopulationFoundationofIndiainth
2、is60thyearasanindependentcountry.ItspopulationislikelytopassChina’sastheimportantresearch.Acountry’sfuturepopulationsize,itsgeographicdistributionworld’slargestwithin20years.Allofthisleadsquitenaturallytothequestion:howanditsagecompositionareamongitsmostsigni
3、ficantfutureconsiderations.largemightthepopulationoftheworld’slargestdemocracybecome?Projectinganycountry’spopulationinthelongtermisanobviouschallengeThisisthequestionthatthePopulationFoundationofIndiaanditspartner,theandonethatincreasesthefurtheroneventuresi
4、ntothefuture.Yet,indemography,PopulationReferenceBureau,haveaddressedinanexercisetoprojectIndia’sfuturedevelopmentsresultfrompastevents.India’spresentpopulationisapopulationforthelongterm.Whilenoonecanpredictfutureeventswithcertitude,consequenceoftrendsinbirt
5、handdeathratesobservedinthepast.Asaresult,itsitispossibletoexaminetheconsequencesofpossiblefuturetrendsinfutureispartlydeterminedbyitsagestructure,bythenumberofyoungpeopledemographicrates,withthefuturebirthrateasignificantfactor.whowillbetomorrow’sparents.Int
6、hispublication,twoscenariosofIndia’sfuturepopulationareoffered.BothInIndia,fertilityrateshaveexceptionallywidevariation,fromanaverageofassumethatfertilitywilldeclinecontinuouslytothepointwherecouplesaverageonly1.7childreninKeralato4.3inBihar.Suchawiderangeadd
7、sadditionaltwochildreneach,thegoalofIndia’sNationalPopulationPolicy2000.Theuncertaintytoanypopulationprojection.But,atthesametime,itaddstothescenariosdifferinonerespect:oneassumesthatstateswithhighercurrentfertilityimportanceofevaluatingthecountry’spossiblepo
8、pulationfuture.Inthisexercise,willdeclinetothe“replacementlevel”of2.1children,acommonassumptioninwehavemadethefundamentalassumptionthatfertilitywillcontinueasmoothprojections.Thesecondass
