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1、GeographicAspectsofPopulationAgingintheRussianFederationTimothyHeleniak1Abstract:AnAmericandemographerspecializingintheformerUSSRandRussiaexaminesthedemographicaspectsofagingandtheagestructureofRussia’spopulationacrossitsregions,coveringurbanversusruralareas,andethnichomeland
2、sversusnon-ethnic(Russian)regions.ThepaperalsoassessestheimplicationsofagingforRussia’spensionandelectoralsystems,byexaminingregionaldifferencesintherealvalueofpensionsandtheemergenceofaratherdurable,conservative“redbelt”stronglycorrelatedwitholder,moreagrarian,andruralpopula
3、tions.AfinalsectionexaminesthefutureofaginginRussiausingrecentpopula-tionprojectionsbyGoskomstatRossiidemographers.JournalofEconomicLiterature,Clas-sificationNumbers:J10,J11,J14.10figures,2tables,39references.INTRODUCTIONecently,muchattentionhasbeenfocusedonRussia’smountinghe
4、althcrisisanditsRpotentialdemographicimpactonthatcountry’spopulation(Feshbach,2003;Russia:Statistics,2003;seealsoEberstadt,2001).Thebasiccontoursoftheproblemarestark:forevery10babiesnowborninthecountry,asmanyas17Russiansdie(Feshbach,2003).Lifeexpectancyhasfallenfrom67yearsin1
5、999to64in2002(Russia:Statistics,2003),2inresponsetoanumberofcriticalpublichealthproblems:(1)HIVcases,projectedtorisefromthecurrentUNAIDSorganizationestimateof0.75–1.2millionto5.3–14.5millionin2020;(2)AIDSdeaths,increasingfrom593todateto72,000–120,000by2010;(3)deathsfromalcoho
6、lpoisoning,risingfrom16,100in1991to41,100in2001;(4)tuberculosis,resultingin29,000deathsin2001,versus781intheUnitedStates;and(5)heartdisease,causing893deathsper100,000populationin2001,versus352intheUnitedStates(ibid.).Areportprob-ing34countriespreparedbyUniversityofLausanneres
7、earchersfortheWorldHealthOrga-nizationdisclosedthatRussiahasthehighestmortalityrateamong34majorworldcountries(Melnikov,2002).AccordingtothePresidentoftheRussianAcademyofMedicalScience,themortalityrateforRussianmalesofworkingageincreased80percentoverthelast1ResearchFellow,Kenn
8、anInstitute,WoodrowWilsonInternationalCenterforScholars(2001–2002);A
