美国经纪人与资产管理者：模型持续.docx

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1、2November2018Americas/UnitedStatesEquityResearchAssetManagersResearchAnalystsCraigSiegenthaler,CFA2123253104craig.siegenthaler@credit-suisse.comAriGhosh2123257113ari.ghosh@credit-suisse.comStevenCastano2123252653steven.castano@credit-suisse.comUSBrokers&AssetManagersEARNINGSModel

2、Maintenance■EstimatesandTargetPriceRevisions:Following3Q18results,weareadjustingestimatesandour12-monthtargetpricesacrossourassetmanagerandretailbrokercoverage.Wehavesummarizedourrevisedtargetpriceandgroupmultipleassumptionsbelow.DISCLOSUREAPPENDIXATTHEBACKOFTHISREPORTCONTAINSIMPO

3、RTANTDISCLOSURES,ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS,LEGALENTITYDISCLOSUREANDTHESTATUSOFNON-USANALYSTS.USDisclosure:CreditSuissedoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethattheFirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofth

4、isreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.2November2018Figure1:CSBrokers&AssetManagersValuationSnapshotCY2020EarningsEarningsMultiple$7.3012.0x$8.3012.0x$4.2714.0x$4.4613.0x$3.3415.0xRetailBrokers:TargetPriceValuationMethod#1Valua

5、tionMethod#2PricetoCashEarningsEVtoNOPATCurrentCapitalTargetNewTargetUpsidetoTotalReturnTickerCompanyNameRatingPriceAdjustmentPricePriceTP(incldiv)EV/NOPATLPLALPLFinancialHoldingsIncO$62$88$8842%44%16.5xRJFRaymondJamesFinancialIncN$79$100$10026%27%7.6xAMTDTDAmeritradeHoldingCorpN$

6、52$60$6015%17%12.6xETFCE*TRADEFinancialCorpO$51$58$5815%15%14.7xSCHWCharlesSchwabCorpO$46$50$508%9%10.0x15%17%13.0x12.6xCY2020CashEarningsCashEarningsMultiple$14.4310.0x$31.8218.0x$1.988.0x$3.408.0x$0.4020.0x$3.778.0x$18.008.0x$8.1713.0x$4.0613.0x$2.7311.0x$2.629.0x$2.028.0x$2.609

7、.0x$2.718.0x$2.768.0xTraditionalAssetManagers:TargetPriceValuationMethod#1ValuationMethod#2PricetoCashEarningsEVtoNOPATTotalCurrentCapitalTargetNewTargetUpsidetoReturnTickerCompanyNameRatingPriceAdjustmentPricePriceTP(incldiv)EV/NOPATVRTSVirtusInvestmentPartnersIncO$100$6.0$150$15

8、050%52%10.3xBLKBlackRockIncO$413$