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1、5November2019USAssetManagers&EquityResearchAmericasBrokersThesisResearchAnalystsCraigSiegenthaler,CFA212-325-3104craig.siegenthaler@credit-suisse.comGautamSawant,CFA212-325-3422gautam.sawant@credit-suisse.comDISCLOSUREAPPENDIXATTHEBACKOFTHISREPORTCONTAINSIMPORTAN
2、TDISCLOSURES,ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS,LEGALENTITYDISCLOSUREANDTHESTATUSOFNON-USANALYSTS.USDisclosure:CreditSuissedoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethattheFirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheob
3、jectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.AssetManagerIndustryThesisWhilewebelievemostinvestorsareunderweighttheUSAssetManagers(especiallytheTraditionals),weremainpositiveontheAltsandcautiousontheTrad
4、itionalsoverthenext12months.Weareoverweighttheseculargrowththemes(ETFs,illiquidAlts)andthesegmentswherescaleadvantagesarethemostcritical(retaildistribution,Alts,passive).Also,whiletraditionalassetmanagervaluationmultiplesarenearrecordlows,weseeearningsrisk(fromnet
5、flowsandadditionalmarketcorrections)whichpreventsusfrombecomingmorepositiveonthesector.Weexpect(1)acontinuationofthe“barbell”industryflowpattern(ETFs/PassivesandAltsfromActiveEquities/Traditionals),(2)productfeepressure,and(3)demographicstocontinuetoweighonthetrad
6、itionalassetmanagementfirmsoverthenexttwoyears.However,weseelessriskfromnewregulations(especiallyintheUS).Overthelong-term,wepreferassetmanagersthatfocusonhighgrowthassetclasseswithinthe“barbell,”whichincludes(1)ETFs(BLK,WETF),and(2)Alternatives(ARES,BX).KeyThemes
7、/Issues:(1)SecularshifttoETFs/passivescontinue:WeexpecttherecentmarketsharegainsintheUSRIAchannel,withlargeinstitutions,andinEurope,willcontinue.Aglobalmigrationtoopen-architectureretailplatformsalongwithnewregulation(RDRinUK,proposedSECFiduciaryRuleinUS,MiFID2inE
8、U,CRM2inCanada)andfocusonaggregateclientexpenselevelswillleadtoagreateradoptionofETFsinUSandEurope.Furthermore,moreinstitutionsarenowusingETFsgivenitsli