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1、30November2017Americas/UnitedStatesEquityResearchBrokerageU.S.RetailBrokersResearchAnalystsINITIATIONCraigSiegenthaler,CFA2123253104craig.siegenthaler@credit-suisse.comTheGoldenAgeofU.S.WealthManagement;JordanFriedlander2123253184ImprovingTech,ClientService&Feesjord
2、an.friedlander@credit-suisse.comWearelaunchingcoverageoftheU.S.RetailBrokerswithanOverweightTravisBlair2123252438recommendation:Thebrokerscurrentlytradeatdiscountstotheirlong-termtravis.blair@credit-suisse.comvaluationmultiplesrelativetothemarket,andwealsoseeupsidep
3、otentialtoJamesCordukes,CFA2019sell-sideEPSestimatesfromhigherrates,organicgrowth,bulktransfers61282054858james.cordukes@credit-suisse.com(SCHW,ETFC),anddealaccretion(LPLA-NPH).WeinitiatewithOutperformAriGhoshratingsforLPLA,ETFC,SCHWandUnderperformratingsforAMTD,RJF
4、.2123257113ari.ghosh@credit-suisse.com■TheGoldenAgeofWealthManagement:AbetteroverallclientLucasLopesexperienceandattractivemacrobackdropwilldrivestrongorganicgrowth551137016052in2018-19intotheadvisoryanddirectonlinebrokeragechannels.Welucas.lopes@credit-suisse.comes
5、timatethekeythemes(independence,fee-based,lowcost),whichMartinPriceacceleratedfromtheDOLRule,willcontinuethrough2020.442078837516martin.price@credit-suisse.com■ROCA-adjustedorganicgrowthanalysis:Webelievethatrevenueadjustedgrowthismoreimportantthanreportedorganicgro
6、wth,whichhelpssupportourabove-consensusEPSestimatesforLPLAbutalsotempersourprofitforecastsforAMTD(ROCA=returnonclientassets).■PFOFariskwithnewregulationpotentialin2018-19:FromourconversationswithcontactsatvarioustradingvenuesandinWashingtonD.C.,wethinktheSECcouldreq
7、uirenewdisclosurerequirementsandmaylaunchapilotprogramthattestsloweraccessfeesinthemaker-takersystem.ThisisakeyriskforAMTDgivenits20-25%EPScontributionfromPFOF(paymentfororderflow)andstrongerorderflowoptimizationeffort.■Depositbetaswillrisebutremainbelow50%:WeviewLP
8、LA'sguidanceasconservativegiventhelazierqualityofmass-affluentdeposits,butthinkSCHW'sdepositcostsmayincreasefastergivenitsdesiretooutprice
