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1、12October2017Americas/UnitedStatesEquityResearchAssetManagersTheUSAssetManagerBEAST-OurMonthlyDataPackResearchAnalystsSTRATEGYCraigSiegenthaler,CFA2123253104craig.siegenthaler@credit-suisse.comETFFlowsatLowestLevelin'17;ForecastAriGhosh2123257113Positive3QFlowsatAMG,TROW
2、andIVZari.ghosh@credit-suisse.comFollowingouranalysisofnetflowandfundperformancedatafromtherecentJordanFriedlander2123253184datareleases(SimFund,Morningstar,Lipper,ICI),weobserved(1)strongjordan.friedlander@credit-suisse.cominflowsintoETF/passive,(2)solidfixedincomeflows
3、(bothpassiveandactive),(3)negativeflowsinactiveequity,and(4)positiveflowsintomoneymarketfunds.DespitethepartialimplementationoftheDOLRule,totalretailflowsareverystrongandevenactiveequityflowsarefaringbetterthanweanticipated(activeequitynetredemptionsaredown35%y/y).■Flow/
4、Feebackdropnotasbadasinitiallyfeared:The18-monthdelayofphase2oftheDOLRuleplusrecentfavorablecourtrulingsonfiduciaryrelatedlawsuits(Fidelity,Putnam,Wells)andstrongperformancein'17areprovidinga"lessbad"backdropforactiveequities.Wealsothinkanimprovingoverallexperienceforret
5、ailinvestors(returns,fees,transparency)coulddriveincrementalwalletsharetotheassetmanagersfrombanksandinsurersintheUSandEurope.Onamanagerbasis,wesawpositive/improvedcorenetflowresultsatAMG,APAM,BLK,EV,IVZ,andTROWbutnofirmactuallyhadweakerthanexpectedresults.UpdateonKeySec
6、ular/CyclicalThemes:■ActivestoPassives(secular)–ShiftcontinuedwithsolidinflowsintobothpassiveMFsandETFsandlargeredemptionsinactiveequityMFs(activeETFflowsarepositive).Asbrokerswere/areveryactivein“modernizing”theirproductofferingsin2H16and2017(inreactiontheDOLRule)andemb
7、racingnewtechnologies(includingmodelportfolios),theyhaveessentiallypulledforwardfutureflowsandacceleratedthethreesecularshifts(Vehicle:MF=>ETF,SMAs,cleanshareclasses;Product:active=>passive;Price:high=>lowfee).Weexpectthehighestoutflowstobeconcentratedinactiveequityprodu
8、ctshousedintraditionalmutualfundshareclasses(A,C),whileETFs,SMAs,andlowercost"clean"shareclasses(R5/6,I
