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1、ABGlobalResearch2August2018GlobalMacroStrategyGlobalBigMacro11:Arecryptocurrenciesmoneyand/oranewassetclass?Virtualcurrencies,particularlybitcoin,areattractinginvestorattention.Virtualcurrenciesaregaininginvestorattention.Wehavereceivedmanyquestionsonthesubject,whichwehopetoaddressinthiseducationalp
2、iece.Withitsfirst-moveradvantage,bitcoinaccountsforc.60%ofmarketcapofthefivelargestknownvirtualcurrencies.Newscoverageofthesubjecthasfluctuatedmoreorlessinlinewithprices,whichroseexponentiallytowardstheendof2017thenretractedasmuchas70%thereafter.Giventhebreadthofthetopicofvirtualcurrencies,wefocusou
3、rdiscussionandanalysisonbitcoinfornow,butourframeworkisastartingpointforstudyingotherslateron.Althoughthereisscepticismaboutthesustainabilityofthecurrentuniverseofvirtualcurrencies,manyexpecttheunderlyingtechnologytoendure.Weplantokeepontopofthesedevelopments.Bitcoincannotbeconsideredmoneyoraviablea
4、ssetclassyet,inourview.Ourfindingssuggestthatbitcoiniscurrentlytoounstableandlimitedtobecomeaviablemeansofpaymentforglobaltransactionsoramainstreamassetclass.Owingtoitslackofpricestability,bitcoinfallsshortofcriteriathatneedtobesatisfiedtobeconsideredmoney.Althoughbitcoinhasbecomeamediumofexchangeto
5、someextent,itisnotyetacommonwaytopayforgoodsandservices,andtechnicalaspects(scalability)limittheabilitytoprocesstransactionsvolumescomparabletoestablishedpaymentsystems.Puttingbitcoin'slimitationsintocontext,inordertomatchUSM1moneysupply,bitcoin'spricewouldneedtobearound$212,992;toprocessVisa'sc.$30
6、bnofdailytransactionsusingtheoldcoreprotocol,theblocksizewouldneedtobe18.8MBinsteadof1MB,orthepricewouldhavetobearound$187,611.Ouranalysisofhistoricaldataindicatesthatbitcoinmighthaveoffereddiversificationbenefits,givennegligiblecorrelationswithotherassets.However,thisisoffsetbybitcoin'spricevolatil
7、ityanditslackofclearregulatorysupportorinvestorsafeguards.Ouranalysisshowsthatbitcoin'sstructureandhighvolatilityactaslimitations.Fixedsupplyandunusualdemanddynamicsmakethesystemsusceptibletohighprice
