全球-宏观策略-摩根全球宏观论坛：风险资产的交易滚动熊市

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1、June25,201809:09AMGMTMorganStanleyGlobalMacroForumTradingaRollingBearMarketforRiskAssetsJune25,2018HansRedeker–GlobalHeadofFXStrategy/StrategistMORGANSTANLEY&CO.INTERNATIONALPLC+ChetanAhya-ChiefEconomist&GlobalHeadofEconomics/EconomistJonathanGarner–ChiefAsia&EmergingMarketE

2、quityStrategistMORGANSTANLEYASIALIMITEDMichaelWilson–ChiefUSEquityStrategistandChiefInvestmentOfficerofInstitutionalSecurities&WealthManagement/EquityStrategistMORGANSTANLEY&CO.LLCHansRedekerisafixedincomestrategistsandisnotopiningonequitysecurities.ChetanAhyaisaneconomista

3、ndisnotopiningonanysecurities.Theirviewsareclearlydelineated.Duetothenatureofthefixedincomemarket,theissuersorbondsoftheissuersrecommendedordiscussedinthisreportmaynotbecontinuouslyfollowed.Accordingly,investorsmustregardthisreportasprovidingstand-aloneanalysisandshouldnotex

4、pectcontinuinganalysisoradditionalreportsrelatingtosuchissuersorbondsoftheissuers.MorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinMorganStanleyResearch.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMorganStanle

5、yResearch.InvestorsshouldconsiderMorganStanleyResearchasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.Foranalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,refertotheDisclosureSection,locatedattheendofthisreport.+=Analystsemployedbynon-U.S.affiliatesarenotregisteredwithFINR

6、A,maynotbeassociatedpersonsofthememberandmaynotbesubjecttoNASD/NYSErestrictionsoncommunicationswithasubjectcompany,publicappearancesandtradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearchanalystaccount.ChetanAhyaChiefEconomistandGlobalHeadofEconomicsHowisglobalgrowthtracking?Globalgrowthstilltr

7、ackingabovetrendExportmomentumsustained5.0%4.5%4.0%3.5%3.0%2.5%2.0%GlobalQuarterlyRealGDPGrowthYoY%MSf'cast123KoreaExportVolume(SA,3MMA)IndexedJan-2013=100Long-termaverage:3.5%11811310810398Mar-13Mar-14Mar-15Mar-16Mar-17Mar-18Mar-19May-13May-14May-15May-16May-17May-18Sou

8、rce:CEIC,IMF,HaverAnalytics,MorganStanleyResearchforecasts.*MorganStanleyco