房地产行业：在健康房地产基本面下的房地产龙头可持续增长预期，维持“跑赢大市”

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1、股票Research研究uitySectorReport:PropertySectorVanLiu刘斐凡Eq行业报告：房地产行业+8675523976672liufeifan@gtjas.com28December2017SustainableGrowthProspectforPropertyLeadersAmidstHealthyPropertySectorFundamentals,Maintain"Outperform"在健康房地产基本面下的房地产龙头可持续增长预期，维持“跑赢大市”行业Healthyfun

2、damentalswillremain.MarginaltighteningupofmonetaryRating:Outperformenvironmentwouldbethemainnegativeeffectonthepropertymarket,butweMaintained报expectpossibleslightlooseningofpolicy.In2018,weestimatethat告ectorReportcommodityhousingsalesYoYgrowthrangeandGFAYoYgr

3、owthrange评级：跑赢大市(维持)Sshouldbe-3.0%to0.0%and-7.0%to-3.0%,respectively,andestimateGFAnewlystartedandinvestmenttorecordarounda0.0%YoYincreaseand2.0%YoYincrease,respectively.PropertySectorKeyDataNotonlymarketshareconcentrationbutalsoprofitconcentrationwill房地产关键数

4、据increase.Themarketshareofthetop50propertydevelopersincreasedin100.0%termsofamount/GFAfrom24.6%/14.2%in2012to37.3%/25.6%inNov.80.0%2017.Housingsalesmayreboundinhighertiercitiesbutmightdeclinein60.0%lowertiercities.Propertyleaderswithfourcorecompetitivepowers(

5、brand40.0%andpipeline;projectdevelopmentability;financingabilityandlandreplenishmentability)couldmaintainsustainablegrowthprospectsinthe20.0%secondhalfofthesliverera.0.0%20072008200920102011201220132014201520162017Wemaintain"Outperform"ontheexpectationofsust

6、ainablegrowthfor-20.0%证thepropertysectorleaders.Thevaluationofthepropertysectorisnotinthe-40.0%InvestmentYoY券undervaluedintervalasperthehistoricalPER,historicalPBRandvaluationGFAnewlyconstructedYoYGFAsoldYoYgapbetweenHKlistingsandA-Sharelistings.Inaddition,th

7、epropertysectorCommodityBuildingSoldYoY研CommodityBuildingAreaSold(Residential)YoYfundamentalsshouldnotsupportahighvaluationforthewholepropertySource:Wind.究sector.However,thepropertyindustrydifferentiationwillleadtovaluationdifferentiationamongstpropertydevelo

8、pers.OurtoppickisChinaOverseasCoverageCompaniesPerformance报(00688HK),whichwillre-graspgrowthmomentumforcontractedsales.覆盖公司表现告ChinaOveseas'targetpriceisHK$31.88,whichrepresentsa20%discoun