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1、10January2018AsiaPacific/ChinaEquityResearchOil&GasChinaOil&GasSectorResearchAnalystsSECTORFORECASTHoraceTse85221017379horace.tse@credit-suisse.com2018:BackinfocusBeatriceLam85221017693beatrice.lam@credit-suisse.comFigure1:ChineseOilshavede-ratedanddecoupledfromoilpriceAndyLiupti
2、ck–weexpectthistrendtoreverseasconfidenceresumes85221016197(x)(US$/bbl)andy.li@credit-suisse.com8.080707.0606.050405.030204.0103.0-2015201620172018ChinaBig3Oilsavg.EV/EBITDA(x)-LHSBrentoilprice-RHSSource:Companydata,CreditSuisseestimates■MoreS/Drebalancing.OPEC’soutputcutextensio
3、ntoDec-2018,coupledwithmoredisciplinednon-OPECsupply,shoulddrawglobalcrudeoilinventoriesbacktothefive-yearaverageby3Q18.Weforecastanotheryearofrobustglobaldemandgrowthat+1.4mb/d,outstrippingsupplygrowthof+1.2mb/d.CSforecasts$60/bblBrentin2018(+11%YoY),butwiththecurrentrateofS/Dim
4、provement,riskisontheupside.Withoilpricesholdingupat$60+,oilstocksshouldreversethede-ratetrendofthelastthreeyears.■Policydevelopmentshouldalsobekeydrivers.Apartfromoilprice,weexpectthesetobedistinctsharepricedriversin2018:(1)Sinopec(+ve):Atemporaryrecedeoftheretailpricewar,plusre
5、-accelerationofMarketingdivisionlistingin2H18,shouldshrugoffmarketconcernsandreversetheunderperformancetrendpast6Mvspeers/oilpricethatwebelieveareunjustified;(2)PetroChina(-ve):Pipelineassetsseparation(NationalPipelineCompany)andopeningupofthird-partyaccesswillremainasthekeynegat
6、ivesin1H18,bothofwhicharelandmarkchangesthatwillerodePetroChina’sdominantgassupplypositionandpricingpower.■Peckingorder:CNOOC>Sinopec>PetroChina.CNOOCstandsoutasthebestpickinourBig3Oilsscorecard,withpositivecatalystsaheadatits2018StrategyDayandFY17results.Sinopec(OUTPERFORM,TPHK$
7、8.00)shouldseevaluationcrystallisationoftheMarketingdivision(15x2018EP/EinourSoTP)asthelistingcomesin2018.PetroChina(NEUTRAL,TPHK$6.00)shouldcontinuetounderperformSNP/CEO,amidincreasedimportgaslossburdenduringtheperiodofgasshortage,alongwithapersistentpolicyoverhangonthegaspipeli
8、nespin-off.Thatsaid,PetroChinaisalsoabet
