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1、19December2019EquityResearchEurope
2、UnitedKingdomGlobalLNGSeasonFinale:Lessonsfrom2019Oil&Gas
3、CommentBottomline,2019hasproventobearecordyearintermsofprojectFIDs(FinalInvestmentResearchAnalystsDecisions)despiteachallengingenvironmentforgas,andperhapsfacilitatedbythefactthatmanycompaniespu
4、rsuedFIDonLNGprojectswithoutlockinginmanylong-termcontractsThomasAdolff(whichtraditionallywastheprecursortoprojectFID).Meanwhile,fewer-than-expectedUSLNG442078889114projectsmanagedtotakeFIDin2019;theUS-Chinatradedisputedidnothelp,withtariffsthomas.adolff@credit-suisse.comimposedonUSLNG.
5、Overall,competitionisintensifying,aslarge/lowcostplayers(e.g.,QatarandRussia)continuouslyexpandtheirgrowthambitionswithQatarraisingitstargetto126mtpaWilliamFeatherstonfrompreviously110mtpa(currentlyproducing~77mtpa),whileitalsoappearstobeoffering2123256283morecompetitivepricingterms(one
6、xistingfacilitiesascontractsexpire).Meanwhile,thekeywilliam.featherston@credit-suisse.comE&C(Engineering&Construction)contractorsarereachingactivitylevelsclosetohistoricalpeaks;themarketisgettingtight,andA-teamsarelikelyalreadybusy,whichincreasestheriskSpiroDounisprofileofpre-FIDproject
7、s.Withthesenear-termchallenges,itwillbeinterestingtoseeif2123253463companiescontinuetopaytopdollarsforLNGprojects(e.g.,MozambiqueArea1,ArcticLNGspiro.dounis@credit-suisse.com2);thenextmarkerwillbethefarm-outofKosmos’stakeinSenegalandMauritania.HoraceTseLessonsfrom2019.Spotpriceshavecome
8、undersignificantpressurein2019,the85221017379severityofwhichmanydidnotanticipate.Manyanticipatedawell-suppliedgasmarket,buthorace.tse@credit-suisse.combelievedthattheymaybebailedoutby(a)supplierssuchasRussiacuttingbackonpipelinesupplytoEuropeand(b)lowpricestoboostdemand.Otherwise,therei
9、splentyofspareSaulKavonicstoragecapacityinEurope(aregionwhereexcessgasissunkinto),sothattheindustry61282054253doesnothavetoworryaboutreachingtanktops(sowasthethinkingatthestartof2019).saul.kavonic@credit-suisse.comWhathappenedinrealityisthat(a)Russiadidnotcutbackandlookedtopres
