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1、15January2020EquityResearchAsiaPacific
2、ChinaChinaOil&GasSector2020:WhenvolatilitymeansopportunityEnergy
3、SectorForecastFigure1:ChinaBig3Oilsscorecardwithrespectto2020keydevelopmentResearchAnalystsHigherPolicyoverhangDownstreamdemandFCFHoraceTseoilpricee
4、asesoffimprovementimprovementOverall85221017379CNOOC31026horace.tse@credit-suisse.comSinopec12205PetroChina231-24KayleeXu85221016197Note:Scoresintherangeof3to-3.Source:CreditSuisseestimateskaylee.xu@credit-suisse.comAbalancedoilmarketwithupsiderisk.Aft
5、ersignificantunderperformancein2019,weexpecttheChinaOil&GasSectortoreversecoursein2020aspolicyoverhangstartstofadeawayanddownstreamdemandweaknessebbs.Oursupply-demandestimatepointstoabalancedglobaloilmarketin2020,thankstotwokeysupply-sidedevelopmentsat
6、end-2019:adeepenedOPEC+cutandweaker-than-expectedBrazilproductionguidance.TheCSGlobalEnergyTeamforecastsUS$63/bblBrentfor2020(-2%YoY),andseespotentialforconstructiveoilpriceset-upinto2H20-2021,particularlyifUSsupplygrowthslowsmorethanforecast.Escalated
7、geopoliticaltensionalsoposesupsiderisktooilprices.Butexpectationsonstocksaredepressedwithvaluationatall-timelow.TheBig3Oilsvaluationreachedall-timelowattheendof2019,withtradingmultiplesatadeepdiscountvsthehistoricalaverageaswellasglobalpeers’.Expectati
8、onsareextremelylow,andwiththebulkofearningsdowngradesbehindus,weexpectamean-reversionreratingin2020asfundamentalsgraduallyimproveanduncertaintiesease.WeestimateChineseOils’aggregateearningsgrowthtoresumein2020(+5%YoY),andwehighlightthatweare~15%aheadof
9、consensusonCNOOC—ourtoppickamongBig3Oils.Stockcalls.OurpeckingorderisCNOOC>Sinopec>PetroChinaundertheCSbase-caseoilpricescenario(US$63/bbl),whilenotingthatCNOOChasthehighestsensitivitytohigheroilpricesfollowedbyPetroChinaandthenSinopec.CNOOC(OUTPERFORM
10、,TPHK$18.0)shouldextenditsoutperformancevspeers,asanacceleratedgrowthprofileplusbest-in-classcostdisciplineenablesittocaptureapotentialoilpriceupsidebetterthanpeers’.Sinopec(OUTPERFORM,TPHK$6.0)hasalreadypricedinalotofnegativesandaseque
