瑞信-欧洲-石油与天然气行业-石油设备制造商：获取信息-2019.8.9.pdf

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1、9August2019Europe/UnitedKingdomEquityResearchOil&GasEquipment&ServicesOilEquipmentmanufacturersResearchAnalystsSECTORREVIEWDavidFarrell442078881515david.farrell@credit-suisse.comGettingthemessageChintanKhamar442078832868WeupdateourthoughtsonSchoeller-Bleckm

2、annandHuntingfollowing2Qchintan.khamar@credit-suisse.comresultsfromUSoilfieldserviceandE&Pcompanies.ThomasAdolff442078889114■DowngradingSBOtoU/P;leavingHTGasO/P:Wehavereducedourthomas.adolff@credit-suisse.comSBOtargetpriceto€56(from€84)andcutourratingtoUnde

3、rperformAraKosyan(fromNeutral).OurEBITDAforecastsfall11%/18%in2019/20andare44207888814278%/17%belowconsensus.ForHunting,ourEBITDAforecastsarecutara.kosyan@credit-suisse.com5%/25%in2019/20,andare8%/20%belowconsensus.However,Hunting'scurrentmultiplesuggeststh

4、esecutsarefarbetteranticipatedbythemarket.WeremainOutperformbutwiththecaveatthatafirstroundofdowngradesmightprovideanevenbetterentrypoint.Ourtargetpricefallsto520pfrom745p.■Listentothemarket:OutlookstatementsfromUSlandfocusedoilservicecompaniespaintaprettyb

5、leakpicturefor3Qactivitylevels(thereareofcoursetheoddoutliers).Moreconcerningtousthoughisthepotentialforanevengreatertail-offin4QasE&Pmanagementteamsstickrigorouslytooperatingwithincash-flow.WhitingPetroleum’scapexbudgetforexampleindicatesapotential30%+decl

6、ine4Qvs3Q.Figure1:YTDsharepricemovevsYTDrevisionto2019EBITDA60%y=1.0763x+0.051140%PUMP.N)BOOM.ODTY20%NBR.N(BHGE.NSBOE.VI$SUn0%WEIR.LWHD.NiPTEN.NSLB.NeOIS.NvoHP.Nme-20%NOV.NHTG.LicrCLB.NHAL.NpFRAC.Nrea-40%RES.NhSFET.N-60%FTSI.N-80%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%1

7、0%20%30%40%2019EBITDArevisioninUS$(YTD)Source:Refinitiv,CreditSuisseresearch.PricedCOB7August2019■MarketpricinginexpandingreturnsforSBO;fallingreturnsforHTG:DrawingonCreditSuisseHOLT®analysis,webelievethatthemarketispricinginCFROI®returnsrisingforSBOEbutcol

8、lapsingintonegativeterritoryforHunting.Or,lookedatdifferently,assumingbothcompaniescansustain5%revenuegrowthfrom2020-23,SBOispricinginconstantEBITDAmarginsof32%(vs29%in2019e)whereasHuntingispricinginco