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1、22January2020EquityResearchAmericas
2、UnitedStatesOil&GasE&PQuarterlyPreviewGuidetoNavigating4QResultsand2020OutlooksOil&GasExploration&Production
3、SectorReview■Positive/negative4Q19resultsand2020messaging.Our4QCFPSestimatesforourResearchAnalystsE&Pcove
4、rageareoverallnearconsensus,thoughweexpectthefocusofthisresultsseasontobemoreontheforwardoutlookratherthanquarterlybeats/misses.RelativetoWilliamFeatherstonconsensus,weseethemostpositivecomboof4Q19resultsand2020messagingfor2123256283CXO,DVN,NBL,PXD&S
5、MandaremostcautiousonCOG,MGY,MUR,QEP&SWN.william.featherston@credit-suisse.com■Primaryfocuswillbe2020capex/production/freecashflowoutlooks.DespiteBettyJiang,CFAhighercrudepricessincecomingoutof3Q19resultsseason(2020WTIfuturesstripis2123256259betty.ji
6、ang@credit-suisse.com~$57/Bbl),weoverwhelminglyexpectUSE&Pstosticktosimilarmessagingon2020outlooks:budgetswillcontinuetobebasedona~$50-$55/BblWTIoilpriceassumptionWilliamJanela,CFAwithincrementalfreecashflowfromhigherpricesallocatedtowardsthebalances
7、heet,2123252646debtreduction,and/orhigherdividends/sharerepurchases.Overall,weforecast2020USwilliam.janela@credit-suisse.comE&Pbudgetswillbedown~11%YoY(roughlyinlinewithconsensus)butnotethisimpliesMichaelZiffer,CFAa12%increaseinrigcount/wellcompletio
8、nsvs.4Q19whichmarkedthelow-pointfor2125380568quarterlyspendinglastyear.Notably,atcurrentstripprices,ourforecastsimply2020cashmichael.ziffer@credit-suisse.comflowshouldexceedcapexby~20%(vs.historicalaverageoutspendof~15%).ChristopherZhang,CFA■Otherthe
9、mesweexpectwilldominatethisearningsseason:1)1Q20oil2123254431productionguidanceandimplicationsonFY20volumesforindividualE&Ps(helpschris.zhang@credit-suisse.comhighlightwhichE&PshaveguidedtooconservativelyoraggressivelyforFY20)aswellastotalUSoutput(ke
10、ydebateremainsaroundhowmuchUSoilproductiongrowsthisyear);ChrisBaker,CFA2)discussionsaroundtherecentrallyinhigh-yieldenergycreditmarketswhichhas2123256375chris.baker@credit-suisse.comopenedthewindowforE&Ps(particularlySMID-caps)torefinancenear-to-medi
