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1、11December2017Americas/UnitedStatesEquityResearchOil&GasExploration&ProductionInitiationofCoverage:USExploration&ProductionandIntegratedOilsResearchAnalystsINITIATIONWilliamFeatherston2123256283william.featherston@credit-suisse.comInitiationofCoverageBettyJiang,CFA2123256259We
2、areinitiatingcoverageof38USE&PcompaniesaswellasCVXandbetty.jiang@credit-suisse.comXOM.PleaserefertoourfullinitiationslidedeckpresentationwhichincludesWilliamJanela,CFAourcomprehensivesectoroverview,industryoutlook,oilandUSnaturalgas2123252646william.janela@credit-suisse.commac
3、roviewsandforecasts,anddetailedindividualcompanyanalysis.MichaelZiffer,CFA■Constructiveviewonlong-termoilprices;forecastmoremuted,2125380568range-boundoutlookforUSnaturalgas:Wethinkthelongendofthemichael.ziffer@credit-suisse.comWTIfuturescurveisundervaluedat~$51/Bbl(belowourlo
4、ng-term,ChristopherZhang,CFA2123254431forecastof$57/Bbl),providingopportunity.OnUSnaturalgas,wearechris.zhang@credit-suisse.commodestlypositiveon2018fundamentalsbutseelong-termpricesrange-ChrisBaker,CFAboundnear$3.00/MMBtugivenexpectationsforaroughlybalancedS/D.2123256375chris
5、.baker@credit-suisse.com■RelativevalueinselectE&Pnames(andnotjustinthePermian);USDylanNassanoMajorslookexpensive:Ingeneral,E&Pvaluationshavecontractedand2123258375nowreflecta~10%discounttoourmid-cycleoilpriceforecastof$57/Bbl.dylan.nassano@credit-suisse.comWhileselective,wedos
6、eerelativevaluewithinthesector(particularlyforSMID-caps)andhaveapproachedthegroupwithaneyetowarddifferentiatingcompaniesofferingthebestcombinationofcapital-efficientgrowth,resourceinventorydepth,andrelativevaluation.Meanwhile,theUSMajorsappearexpensiveversusEuropeanpeers,USE&P
7、s,andtheirhistoricalmultipleswhileofferinglessleveragetoanoilpricerecovery.■Wherewestandonthekeysectordebatesinto2018:1)MountinginvestordemandforfocusonFCFandreturns:weagreewiththepushforgreaterfinancialdisciplinebuturgeafocusondebt-adjustedgrowthmetrics(overROCE),whichbetterm
8、easurecapitalefficiencyandaremostcorrelatedtoequityperformanc
