瑞信-全球-股票策略-石油：过度悲观的共识？-2017.9.29-credit suisse-global equity strategy - oil an overly bearish consensus

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1、ResearchAnalystsAndrewGarthwaite+442078836477andrew.garthwaite@credit-suisse.comMarinaPronina+442078836476marina.pronina@credit-suisse.comRobertGriffiths+442078838885robert.griffiths@credit-suisse.comNicolasWylenzek+442078836480GlobalEquityStrategyni

2、colas.wylenzek@credit-suisse.comAlexHymers+442078889710Oil:anoverlybearishconsensus?alex.hymers@credit-suisse.comMengyuanYuan+44207888036829September2017mengyuan.yuan@credit-suisse.comKartikUpadhyay+442078882339kartikeya.upadhyay@credit-suisse.comDIS

3、CLOSUREAPPENDIXATTHEBACKOFTHISREPORTCONTAINSIMPORTANTDISCLOSURES,ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS,LEGALENTITYDISCLOSUREANDTHESTATUSOFNON-USANALYSTS.USDisclosure:CreditSuissedoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshou

4、ldbeawarethattheFirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.Oil:anoverlybearishconsensus?Wearebenchmarkoil.Theconsensus,however,ispessimi

5、stic(lookingfor$54pbforQ4)andwefindthatclientsareevenmorepessimistic(primarilyowingtoshaleandEVs).Ourhouseviewisanaverageoilpriceof$53pbfor2018and$60pblongterm.Wewouldplayanyfurtheroilpriceupsidebybeingoverweightbanks,Russiaandmining.Withintheoilsect

6、or,ourpreferenceisUKIOCsandEuropeanOFS.Theriskisthattheoilpriceisstrongerthantheconsensusexpects.Continuednon-OPECandOPECcomplianceatcurrentlevels,combinedwithsupplysidedisruptionnormalisingfromlowlevels,couldtakec2.5mbdsupplyoffthemarket(comparedto

7、end-2016).DemandgrowthmightmodestlysurprisewithglobalPMIsneara4-yearhigh(halfofdemandisfromdevelopedworld).USshaleisonly6.5%ofglobalsupplyandtherearesomesignsthatthesupplysideresponsemightnotbeasstrongasexpected(e.g.EIAexpectsUSproductiongrowthtoslow

8、)andthehuge$730bndeclineincapexsurelyaffectslongtermdepletionrates.Thekey,inthenearterm,isSaudiArabia’sattitudeandwethinktheriseincivilservicepayandthepotentialupcomingAramcoIPOsuggestthattheywouldnotmindaspikeupintheoilprice.Therearesomefactorsthat