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1、19January2018
2、4:36PMESTEMStrategyViewsReflationresurgenceandtheEM“melt-up”tradenWithreflationbackinfocusisEMindangerof“melting-up”?DespitetheCaesarMaasry+1(212)902-8763
3、curveflatteningintheUS,ratesarerisingandbreakeveninflationisfollowingcaesar.maasry@gs.comGoldmanSachs&Co.LLCsuit.Alongwithr
4、eflationcomesthefearofassetsinbullmarkets“melting-up”,RonGraywhichreferstovaluationsovershootingasthecyclematures,leadingtoaspikein+1(212)357-6762
5、ron.gray@gs.comGoldmanSachs&Co.LLCpricesbeforeareversal.However,wedonotfindthatthisriskisrelevanttothecurrentEMrun,asithasbeendrivenlargelybyim
6、provingearningsandabroad-basedaccelerationineconomicgrowth.nEMequitiesowestrongperformancetorisingearnings,valuationshaveroomtoimprovevsDM.Ofthe34%riseinMSCIEMin201722%isattributabletolocalcurrencyEPSgrowth,5%toEMFXappreciation,andjust5%toincreasesinvaluations.Thehistoricalrelationshipbe
7、tweenrelativevaluationsofDMcyclicalsvsdefensivesandEMvsDMhasbrokendownrecentlywitha“growthpremium”forminginDMassetswhileEMlags.ThissuggeststhatEMvaluationshavesignificantroomtoimprovebasedonimprovingeconomicfundamentalsandarosierearningsoutlook.nCreditspreadsaremovinginlinewithstrongergro
8、wthandhaveroomtotightenfurther.EMspreadsaretight,butaggregateEMspreadstendtopricerelativetogrowthandfromthatframeworktheylookfairlyvalued.EMvsUSHYspreadstypicallymoveinlinewithDMcyclicalsvsdefensivesvaluations,butthatrelationshiphasalsobrokendownleavingearlycycleEMcreditpoisedtogaingroun
9、donwhatwebelievetobeanageingUScorporatecreditcycle.FortheexclusiveuseofDAI.YONGYI@ICBCCS.COM.CNReflationresurgenceandtheEM“melt-up”tradeAshasbeenwelldocumentedbythenewsheadlines,emergingmarketassetshavebegun2018onastrongfooting–someofthepoliticalriskshaveseemedtoimprovethusfar(market-frie
10、ndlyoutcomesinSouthAfricaandChileinDecember,reportsofabatingNAFTAwithdrawalrisksinrecentdays),andthegrowthbackdropcontinuestoimprove.DuringJanuary,ourmacroteamshaveheldinvestorconferencesacrossGoldmanSachsdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.As
