贸易战升级，新兴市场前景黯淡-全球新兴市场策略

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1、June25,201811:02AMGMTGlobalEMStrategistRalliesShouldBeFadedWemovebacktoneutralasgrowthdifferentialswideninfavouroftheUSandtradetensionsarelikelytoescalatefurther.ThepressurepointsareshiftingasthefocusmovesfromUSTyieldstogrowthandequitymarketrisks,leavingAXJFXmoreexposed.WeseeEMIGcreditoutperform

2、ing.Backdownagain:Theargumentsbehindourshifttobullishinmid-MayhavenotplayedoutandsowemovebacktoneutralonFXandcredit.RalliesshouldbeMORGANSTANLEY&CO.INTERNATIONALPLC+JamesKLordSTRATEGISTMinDaiSTRATEGISTMin.Dai@morganstanley.com+44207425-4381JaiparanSKhuranaSTRATEGISTEllieHeatherillSTRATEGISTEllie

3、.Heatherill@morganstanley.com+44207677-0031MORGANSTANLEY&CO.LLCSimonWaeverSTRATEGISTSimon.Waever@morganstanley.com+1212296-8101AndresJaimeSTRATEGISTfaded,notchased.WemadetheswitchonFXlastThursdaywithrevisionstoourAndres.Jaime@morganstanley.com+1212296-5570currencyforecasts.Whatchanged?First,grow

4、thdifferentialsarewideninginIoanaZamfirfavouroftheUS,whichwasnotourbasecase.Meanwhile,theFedisclearaboutSTRATEGISTIoana.Zamfir@morganstanley.com+1212761-4012itshikingintentions.Second,tradetensionsareescalating,whichwasalsonotGilbertoAHernandez-GomezSTRATEGISTJames.Lord@morganstanley.com+4420767

5、7-3254Jaiparan.Khurana@morganstanley.com+44207677-667149ourbasecase.Weseethistrenddeterioratingintheshorttermbeforeanydealscanbemade.FocusshiftstoAXJ:TheEMsell-offwasinitiallydrivenbyUSratesheadinghigher,affectingthosewithweakexternalpositionsmostlyinCEEMEAandLatinAmerica.Now,growthandequitymark

6、etconcernsaredominantand10yUSTyieldswillprobablycomelower.Thisleaveslow-yieldingAsianFXmorevulnerable,inourview.OurFXriskpremiamodelagreesandtheseviewswerereflectedinourforecastslastweek.Priceactionsofarisbearingthisout.Reflectingsimilarthemes,weshiftourreceiverinCNYNDIRSfrom1yto5y,stayGilberto

7、.Hernandez-Gomez@morganstanley.comMORGANSTANLEYASIALIMITED+JesperRoothSTRATEGISTJesper.Rooth@morganstanley.comChunHimCheungSTRATEGISTChun.Him.Cheung@morganstanley.comShiftingintoneutral+1212296-8940+8523963-1519+8522239-126