麦格理-印度-宏观经济-印度mpc会议纪要：关注通胀上行风险

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1、INDIAIndiaEconomicsMinutesoftheMPC–ConcernedCPI–Headline,FoodandCore(YoY%)aboutupsideriskstoinflation16%HeadlineCPIinflationYoY%14%CoreCPIInflation(CPIexMinutesofFebMPCmeetingreleased:TheRBIreleasedtodaytheminutes12%FoodexFuel)oftheMPCmeetingheldonFebruary6-7,2018.Recall,theRBIhadhel

2、dkey10%CPIFoodinflation8%ratesunchangedwithavoteof5-1,withMPCmemberDr.Patradissenting6%fora25bpratehike.Inourview,theMPCminutescameacrossasslightly4%morehawkish(atthemargin)comparedtotheoveralltoneofthe2%thmonetarypolicystatementof7Feb.0%-2%What’sinthedetails?n-12l-12n-13l-13n-14l-14

3、n-15l-15n-16l-16n-17l-17n-18JaJuJaJuJaJuJaJuJaJuJaJuJaUpsideriskstoinflationremainaconcern:TheMPCminutesSource:CEIC,MacquarieResearch,February2018highlightedthatallmembersremainconcernedregardingupsideriskstoinflation,especiallyasvariousmeasuresofinflationseemtobeconvergingabovethe5%

4、mark.TheriskstoinflationaspertheMPCmembersstemfrom(1)fiscalslippageinthecurrentyearandthedelayHouseholdinflationexpectationsinachievingthefiscalconsolidationroadmap,(2)inflationaryimpactfromgovernment’spolicytofixminimumsupportpricesat1.5xcost,(3)15customdutyhikesannouncedinthebudget,

5、(4)turninglobalcommodityprices(thoughmembersalsohighlightedthepossibilityofoil10pricestocorrectassupply-sideresponseevolves)and(5)uncertaintyfrommonetarypolicynormalizationindevelopedeconomies.OntheInflationExpectations-3Mdownside,thelikelysupply-sideresponseandimpactonoilprices,5Ahea

6、dInflationExpectations-12Movercapacityinthesystemandgovernment’sfoodmanagementpolicyAheadwerealludedto.0Gettingmoreconfidentaboutreboundingrowth:Themembersnotedc-06c-07c-08c-09c-10c-11c-12c-13c-14c-15c-16c-17DeDeDeDeDeDeDeDeDeDeDeDethatincominggrowthdataispointingtowardsstrengthening

7、growthSource:CEIC,MacquarieResearch,February2018momentum.Membersseemedmoreconfidentabouttherecoveryingrowthanditnotbeingjustabaseeffectrelatedincreaseingrowth.Whatmadethemajorityofthemembersvoteforapausedespitehighlightingupsideriskstoinflation?Thenascentgrowthrecovery,whichneedssome

8、suppo