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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchNorthAmericaPeriodicalDateUnitedStatesRailcar&11December2017IndustrialsChemicals/CommodityPetroChemicalDavidBegleiterUpdateResearchAnalyst(+1)212250-5473david.begleiter@db.comUSChemicalShipmentsup3.1%.KatherineGriffinEthanedown4c/galto20c/ga
2、lResearchAssociate(+1)212250-7265Railcarloadings4-weekmovingaverage+3.1%.Weeklyloadingsup4.0%katherine-a.griffin@db.comThe4-weekmovingavgofchemicalrailcarloadingsincreased3.1%inWeek#49(ended12/2/2017)vs.a3.6%increasethepriorweek.LoadingsYTDareupDavidHuang1.1%.Chemical
3、railcarloadingsrepresent20%oftotalUSchemicalshipmentResearchAssociatetonnage(followedbytrucks,barges,andpipelines),offeringatrendofbroader(+1)904520-5307chemicalindustryactivityanddemand.Themorevolatilemeasureofweeklydavid-a.huang@db.comloadingsincreased4.0%YoY(versus
4、a0.5%decreaseinthepriorweek)andincreased28.5%sequentially(vs.a15.5%decreaseinthepriorweek).ToppicksEthanepricesdown4c/galto20c/gal.Propanedown1c/galto97c/galEthanepricesfell4.3c/gallastweekto20.4c/gal(vsitsfuelvalueof18c/gal).DowDuPont(DWDP.N),USD70.73BuyThedeclineine
5、thanepriceswasdrivenbymuteddemand(thenew1.5MMAshland(ASH.N),USD70.14Buym.t.DowDuPontethylenecracker,thelargestintheUS,wentdownforEastmanChemical(EMN.N),USD92.18BuymaintenanceonDecember4andisnotduetocomebackupuntilDecemberSource:DeutscheBank24)andsellingofethaneby2ethy
6、leneproducers(possiblyduetoyear-endinventorycontrol).WhileUSethanesupply/demandfundamentalsremainWeeklyPricePerformanceloose,ethanerejection,whichpeakedat500-600kbpdin1H16,hasdeclinedfollowingtheSeptember’16start-upofEnterpriseProducts200kbpdethaneAXTASHWexportfacilit
7、yinHouston.Startingin1H’18,weexpectUSethanes/dLYBfundamentalstotightenfurther,drivenby600kbpdofnewdemandfromtheWLKPstart-upof8greenfieldethylenecrackersin’17-’19.Asthemarkettightens,XLBS&PCOMPweexpectethanetotradetowarditshistoricalpremiumof~10c/galvsitsfuelECLvalue,w
8、iththepremiumreflectingfractionation,transportationandstorageEMNcosts.BasedonDB’s’17USNaturalGaspriceforecastof$3.02/MMBtu,w
