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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateIndiaIndiaOil&Gas21November2017EnergyOil&GasForecastChangeHarshadKatkarRefining:onafirmwicketResearchAnalyst(+91)227180-4029harshad.katkar@db.comAsianrefiningmarginstoremainabove10-yearaverageKeyChangesWithglobalrefinedproductdemandout
2、strippingcapacityadditions,YoYlowerCompanyTargetPriceRatingrefinedproductinventorylevelsandbenignChineseexports,weremainRELI.BO1,005.00to-constructiveontheAsianrefiningmarginoutlook,expectingrefiningmargins1,020.00(INR)(GRMs)ofUSD7.0/7.1/6.8/bblfor2017/18/19(vs.USD6.8/7.0/bblpr
3、eviously).HPCL.BO525.00to-AtoverUSD7,AsianGRMswouldbe11%abovethelast10years’average.535.00(INR)OverCY17-19weestimateincrementalrefiningcapacityadditionofonlyBPCL.BO625.00to-2.1mmbpdvs.incrementaldemandof3.9mmbpd.AmongtheIndianrefiners,645.00(INR)wepreferstocksthatenjoyvaluation
4、comfort,catalystsandearningsdrivers.IOC.BO530.00to-Ourpreferredpicks:BPCLandRelianceIndustries.540.00(INR)Source:DeutscheBankLowinventory,benignChineseexportgrowthtosupportrefiningmarginsGoingintotheNorthernhemispherewinter,multi-yearlowinventorylevels,Toppicksespeciallyformidd
5、ledistillates,andslowgrowthinChineserefinedproductRelianceIndustries(RELI.BO),INR910.00BuyexportsshouldsupportrefiningmarginsatoverUSD7/bbl.GasolineandBPCL(BPCL.BO),INR504.70Buymiddledistillateinventoriesarerunningatclosetotwo-yearlowsforthistimeSource:DeutscheBankoftheyear,dri
6、venbystrongdemandandthehurricaneimpactintheUS.Gasolineinventoriesareat22.8daysofdemand(lastseenin2014)andgasoilCompaniesFeaturedinventoriesat33.1days(lastseenin2015)intheUS(Fig10andFig11).OECDRelianceIndustries(RELI.BO),INR910.00Buymiddledistillateinventoriesareat33.7days(Fig14
7、),atthelastfiveyears’HPCL(HPCL.BO),INR414.40Buyaverage.WealsoexpectChineserefinedproductexportgrowthtobeunderBPCL(BPCL.BO),INR504.70Buy0.1mmbpdinCY18andCY19(0.04mmbpdYTDCY17).IOC(IOC.BO),INR395.00BuySource:DeutscheBankCapacityadditionstolagsupplygrowthWenowestimatenetrefiningca
8、pacityaddsat0.4/0.8/0.8mmbpdinCY17/18/19v/s0.6/0.7/0.5
