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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchEuropeIndustryDateGlobalOil&Gas17September2017Oil&GasIndustryUpdateLucasHerrmann,ACAGlobalOil&GasConferenceResearchAnalyst(+44)20754-73636Takeawayslucas.herrmann@db.comOurOilandGasPlenarySessionConferenceHighlightsDavidMirzai
2、MichaelHsuehOn14thSeptemberatDB'sAnnualOil&GasConferenceindustryconsultantResearchAnalystResearchAnalystWoodMackenziepresenteditslatestthoughtsontheprospectsforoilsupply,(+44)20754-19002(+44)20754-78015UStightoil,refiningandglobalgas&LNG.Reflectingitsd
3、etailedanalysisofdavid.mirzai@db.commichael.hsueh@db.comtheshiftsinthesupply/demandbalanceacrossthedifferentendmarkets,WMremainscautiousonthenear-termoutlookforoilmarketsalthoughitdoesseeRyanToddgrowingrisktotheconsensusforUSsupplygrowth.However,themid
4、-termResearchAnalystpictureforoilistighteningandtheoutlookhasalsoimprovedforEuropean(+1)212250-8342gas,LNGandrefining.Summarizedbelowthisnoteincludeskeyslidesfromryan.todd@db.comthepresentationsandthemainmessagescontainedwithin.Shiftingbackintosurplusi
5、nH2-18but$70-80/bblneededlongertermSupplygapto2020(mb/d)Strongsupplygrowthisexpectedtoreturnin2018almostentirelyonthebackofUStightoil,withgrowthof+1.2mb/dnearlyenoughtosatisfyworldoildemandgrowthof+1.3mb/d.Field-levelanalysissuggestsnon-OPECdeclinerate
6、swillnotgomuchbeyond5%through2020onimprovedefficiencies,targetedspending,andgreaterproductionfromearly-lifeassets.Longerterm,WoodMac(WM)continuestobelievethatamid-cycleoilpriceof$70-80/bblwillberequiredtoincentivizesufficientnon-OPECinvestmentbeyondthe
7、USonshoreinordertooffsetapotential17mb/dsupplygapby2025.USTightOil:Strongnear-term,butflaggingsomeLTareasofdownsideriskUStightoilcontinuestodominatenon-OPECgrowth,withthePermianresourcebaseremainingespeciallyadvantaged.However,WMalsooutlineseveralareas
8、ofconcernvsinvestorexpectations.Near-termgrowthratesarenotasstrongasimpliedbyweeklyEIAdata,withmoreaccuratemonthly914datashowingamoremodestrun-rate.Analysisalsopointstomid-termriskstoSource:WoodMackenzietherateofgrowth,wherereservoirdow
