j.p. 摩根-美股-石油行业-美国石油勘探与生产2018年展望

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1、Completed14Dec201709:55PMESTDisseminated15Dec201712:25AMESTNorthAmericaEquityResearch15December2017U.S.ExplorationandProduction2018E&POutlook:AnalyzingU.S.ShaleUndertheFCFLens;StockSelectionBiasTowardScaleandCapitalEfficiencyJPMView:U.S.shalecompanieshave

2、growntheiroilandgasresourcebasesOil&GasExploration&exponentiallyoverthepastdecade.Throughfieldpilots,theadoptionofnewProductiontechnologies(mostlycompletionsoriented),andafocusonefficiencygainsintheArunJayaramACdownturn,domesticshaleproducershavealsosigni

3、ficantlyreducedbreak-even(1-212)622-8541coststolevelsthatarehighlycompetitiveex-OPEConaglobalscale.Yetthearun.jayaram@jpmorgan.comstockshavelaggedthebroadermarketsfor6ofthepast7years,including40%+BloombergJPMAJAYARAMACthusfarin2017.Giventhehistoricalg

4、rowthfocusinthesector,themissinglinkMichaelAGlickhasbeentheinabilityoftheindustrytoharnessthisadvantagedpositioninthe(1-212)622-9513globalcostcurvetodeliveradequatereturnsandFCFtoshareholders.Hencethemichael.a.glick@jpmorgan.comBloombergJPMAGLICKstock

5、shavede-rated.In2017,acommoncharacteristicofthewinnerswereACcompaniesthatsuccessfullytransitionedtoFCFstoriesorexecutedbalancedGabrielJDaoudJr.,CPA(1-212)622-0654capitalallocationprograms(COG,CXO,ECA,EOG,andFANG).Webelievegabriel.j.daoudjr@jpmorgan.comthi

6、sthemehaslegsandcouldcontinuetodifferentiatethestocks,particularlytheBloombergJPMADAOUDlargecaps.Inthisreport,wehaveanalyzedU.S.shalecompaniesundercoverageAshishRathunderaFCFlens.(1-212)834-7587ashish.rath@jpmorgan.comFocusedonscaleandcapitalefficien

7、cyin2018:Afteratumultuous2017,weDanielSArnoldexpectabitmorestabilityontheroadaheadfortheE&Pgroupin2018,albeit(1-415)315-8463withsome(NOLA-sized)potholesalongthewayforcompaniesthatlackscale.daniel.s.arnold@jpmorgan.comGivenlingeringriskstoexecutionandcapit

8、alefficiencyfromfracsupply,laborBrianJWiegandandlogisticsissues,webelievestockselectionwillbeofcriticalimportance(1-212)622-2243nextyear.Steppingback,oneofthekeytrendsthatemergedaroundmid-yearbrian.wiegandjr@jpmorga