j.p. 摩根-美股-软件科技行业-源代码2018年展望

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1、Completed12Dec201712:44AMESTDisseminated12Dec201712:44AMESTNorthAmericaEquityResearch12December2017TheSourceCode2018OutlookIt'stimetoputyouraccountinghaton.Followinganexcellent2017whereSoftwareTechnologysoftwaresawstrongperformancerelativetothemarket,weheadinto2018ACSterlingAuty,

2、CFAwhenweexpectalotofdiscussionandconfusionaroundnewaccounting(1-212)622-6389revenuerecognitionrulesandpotentialbenefitsfromtaxreform.Thissterling.auty@jpmorgan.comcomesatthesametimethatsoftwarecompaniesareatrevenuevaluationsBloombergJPMAAUTYnotseensincetheearly2000s,granteds

3、oftwarecompaniesaremoreJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCprofitableandgenerateahigherportionofrecurringrevenuenow.WeareJacksonEAder,CFA(1-212)622-4863rebalancingourratingswithfewerOverweightandmoreUnderweightjackson.e.ader@jpmorgan.comstocksaswebelieveitwillbedifficulttorepeatthestrongperfo

4、rmanceJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCseenin2017.ThechallengeisthatmanyofthesecompaniesareUgamKamatoperationallydoingverywell,sothisissimplyavaluationcallandin(1-212)622-61022017valuationhasnotmatteredtoomuch,inourview.Butourlongugam.kamat@jpmorgan.comexperienceshowsthatthesephasesendandw

5、ecouldwellseeanumberofJ.P.MorganIndiaPrivateLimitedstocksinourcoveragemarktimeastheygrowintotheirvaluations.ASC606ishereandwilllikelycauseconfusionandvolatility.ThesearethenewrevenuerecognitionrulesthatgointoeffectforfiscalyearsbeginningafterDecember15,2017.Thenewruleswillcauses

6、omecompaniestobringmorerevenuetoupfrontrevenuerecognition,causelonger-termcontractswithpriceacceleratorstoberecognizedmoreevenly,causepotentialimprovementinmarginsassalescommissionsaredeferredandrecognizedoverthelifeofacustomercontract/life,andrequirecompaniestodisclosebacklog,al

7、lowingthecalculationoftruebookingsperformancequartertoquarter.Webelievetherulesfurtheremphasizethebenefittovaluingsoftwarecompaniesoncashflowratherthanincomestatementmetrics.Ratingchanges–Takingalessbullishviewinto2018.Forthebetterpartof2017weweresignificantlyskewedtoOWratedstoc

8、ks,aviewthatfittheoutperformancesoftware