五大投行全球新兴市场2011年投资策略深度报告德意志银行

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1、GlobalStrategyUpdateCompany1December2010GlobalEmergingMarketsStrategyStructuralchallengestodriveperformanceDisconnectbetweentopdownperceptionsandMicrodriversMajorityofinvestorsexpectlongtermGEMoutperformanceWeinitiateonGEMwithacriticallookatsomeofthelikelylongtermdriversoftheassetclassr

2、elativetotheglobalequityuniverse.BothinstitutionalandretailinvestorshavegenerallypositiveviewsaboutthelongtermprospectsforGEM,GlobalMarketsResearchwhicharereflectedinongoinginflowsintotheassetclass,inourview.Webelievethisconsensusisbasedonperceptionofsuperiormacro-economicfactors,therem

3、arkableoutperformanceofGEMequitiesoverthepastdecadeandtheprevailingbehaviouralpsychology,whichhasmovedagainsttheUSmodelofeconomiesandmarketsinfavourofalessliberalmindset.StructuraldriversofGEMequitiestochangegoingforwardAgainstabackdropoflowerglobaleconomicgrowth,marketoutcomesappeartoh

4、avebecomefarmoreuncertainandpolicydependent.Weareespeciallyconcernedaboutthesustainabilityofthoseeconomiesandbusinessmodels,whicharepredicateduponexportledgrowth,includingcommodities.Wearealsowaryabouttheincreasedtendencyforgovernmentsofcertaincountriestointerveneinthecorporatesectortot

5、hedetrimentofminorityshareholders.OverthepastdecadetheGEMequityassetclasshasgenerallybeenregardedasagearedplayonglobalgrowth.Wethinkthatthefocusofassetallocationwillincreasinglyshifttothewaysinwhichindividualcountriesandgovernmentsadapttothenewenvironment.Valuationsreasonablebutnotcheap

6、againstdevelopedmarketsGEMequityvaluationshavemovedtowardsparitywithdevelopedmarketsespeciallyonasector-adjustedbasis,thoughlikeallequitymarkets,theyremaincheaprelativetofixedincome.Thereishowever,adearthofobviousbuyideassincemanyofthecheaperstocksfacestructuralchallenges,suchaswhatappe

7、artobepotentiallyexcessivelevelsofcapexorthepossibilityofarbitrarystateinterference.Converselythemainlyprivatelycontrolled,highgrowthstocksandmarkets,generallytradeatdemandingvaluations.Wethinkthatoverall,GEMshouldtradeatadiscounttodevelopedmarkets,inparticulartheUS.Longterminv