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1、TopofForm22May2005
2、MemberEditionThedemographicdeficit:HowagingwillreduceglobalwealthTofillthecominggapinglobalsavingsandfinancialwealth,householdsandgovernmentswillneedtoincreasetheirsavingsratesandearnhigherreturnsontheassetstheyalreadyhave.DianaFarrell,SachaGhai,andTimShaversTheMcKin
3、seyQuarterly,Webexclusive,March2005Theworld'spopulationisaging,andasitgetsevengrayer,bankbalanceswillstopgrowingandlivingstandards,whichhaveimprovedsteadilysincetheindustrialrevolution,couldstagnate.ThereasonisthatthepopulationsofJapan,theUnitedStates,andWesternEurope,wherethevastmajor
4、ityoftheworld'swealthiscreatedandheld,areagingrapidly(Exhibit1).Duringthenexttwodecades,themedianageinItalywillriseto51,from42,andinJapanto50,from43.Sincepeoplesavelessaftertheyretireandyoungergenerationsintheirprimeearningyearsarelessfrugalthantheirelderswere,savingsratesaresettofalld
5、ramatically.Injust20years,householdfinancialwealthintheworld'smajoreconomieswillberoughly$31trillion1lessthanitwouldhavebeenifhistoricaltrendshadpersisted,accordingtonewresearchbytheMcKinseyGlobalInstitute(Exhibit2).2Ifleftunchecked,theslowdowninglobal-savingsrateswillreducetheamountof
6、capitalavailableforinvestmentandimpedeeconomicgrowth.Nocountrywillbeimmune.FortheUnitedStates—withitsrelativelyyoungpopulation,higherbirthrates,andsteadyinfluxofimmigrants—theagingtrendwillberelativelylesssevere.Still,itssavingsrateisalreadydismallylow,evenbeforethebabyboomershavestart
7、edtoretire.Tofinanceitsmassivecurrent-accountdeficit,theUnitedStatesreliesoncapitalflowsfromEuropeandJapan,buttheytoofacerapidlyagingpopulations.Evenfast-growingdevelopingcountriessuchasChinawillnotbeabletogenerateenoughsavingstomakeupthedifference.Findingsolutionswon'tbeeasy.Raisingth
8、eretirementage,easingrestrictionsonimmigration,orencouragingfamiliestohavemorechildrenwillhavelittleimpact.Boostingeconomicgrowthaloneisnotasolution,noristhenextproductivityrevolutionortechnologicalbreakthrough.Tofillthecominggapinglobalsavingsandfinancialwealth,householdsandgovernme
