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1、WeeklyReportMacroReportChinaMerchantsSecurities(HongKong)Co.,Ltd.HongKongEquityResearchJuly31,2017MondayGlobalMacroWeeklyDigest(Issue90)LynnSONGEurozone2QGDPisexpectedtoshowcontinued+85231896122lynnsong@cmschina.com.hkmomentum,butinflationarypressuresstillsubdu
2、ed■Thisweek,theEurozonewillreleasetwoimportantdata:JulyHICPinflationand2QYaoWANGGDP.Afterasolid1Qgrowthof0.6%QoQ,recentmonthlydatasuchasPMI,industrialproductionandretailsalesallshowedrobustgrowthduringthethreemonthsin2Q.Thus,we+85231896751expecttoseecontinuedmo
3、mentuminto2Q,withGDPgrowingataround0.6-0.7%wangyao@cmschina.com.hkQoQ.Butduetotheweakcommoditiesprices,thesluggishwagegrowthandthefallinginflationexpectations,inflationshouldremainsubdued.Dr.CliffZHAO,CFA■Forthepastseveralquarters,theEurozonegrowthwasalmostenti
4、relydriven+85231896126bydomesticdemand,andweexpectthispatterntopersistatleastforthenearterm.wenlizhao@cmschina.com.hkSpecifically,theshort-termoutlookforprivateconsumptionremainsfavorable,withconsumerconfidencekeptrecoveringsinceMarch.Theharddata,retailsales,al
5、soconfirmedtheKeyForecaststrongerconsumptiongrowth,whichresumeditsupwardmomentumsinceJanuary.Forinvestment,weseethattheunderlyingmomentumslightlystrengthened.AstheglobalU.S.demandispickingup,industrialproductionhasbeenimprovingsinceMarch,whichgrewby%1617E1.3%Mo
6、MinMay,thebestperformancesincelastNovember,andfinallyconfirmedtheupbeatinPMIdata.Asaresult,theincreaseofcapacityutilizationratesandcorporateGDP1.62.0profitabilitysuggestsagrowingobsolescenceofthecapitalstock,whichcouldtriggerCPI1.32.1replacementinvestment.Moreo
7、ver,financingconditionsareveryfavorable,withbankUnemployment4.84.5lendingratestonon-financialcorporationsremainingatlowlevels.■However,despitethecontinuedgrowthmomentum,theregion’sinflationaryCurrentAccount/GDP-2.6-2.7pressureisexpectedtoremainsubdued.Therecove
8、ryofcommoditiesprices,especiallyFiscalbalance/GDP-3.1-3.1theoilprices,andthereflationthemestartedin4Q16droveupinflationacrosstheEurozonePolicyrate0.751.25to1.9%YoYinApril,be
