麦格理-印度-宏观经济-增值税重置 ：一个积极的举措

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1、INDIAIndiaeconomics12MtrailingfiscaldeficittrackingGSTreset–apositivemovehigherthangovernment’stargetof3.2%ofGDPforFY18MajorrationalizationinGSTwithpruningofthegoodstaxedat28%8%12Mtrailingfiscaldeficitas%ofGDPbracketandsimplifyingfilingrules:TheGSTCouncilon10November7%announcedamajorrationaliza

2、tionofgoodstaxedatthehighesttaxbracketof6%28%andalsotookstepstosimplifyreturnfilingtoreducethecompliance5%burden.TheGSTcouncildecidedtokeeponly50luxuryandsingoodsinthe4%highesttaxbracket(vs228goodsearlier)andalsorationalizesomegoodsin3%3.6%othertaxbrackets,withatotalof210goodsmovingtolowertaxrat

3、es.The2%GSTcouncilalsoannouncedmeasureswithrespecttosimplifyingthefiling1%processandincreaseinthresholdforthecompositionscheme.Allthe0%changedrules,exceptforthehighercompositionschemeturnoverthreshold,ar-07willbeapplicableprospectivelyfromNovember15.SeeappendixfordetailsMDec-07Sep-08Jun-09Mar-10

4、Dec-10Sep-11Jun-12Mar-13Dec-13Sep-14Jun-15Mar-16Dec-16Sep-17onlistofchangesintaxratesofvariousgoodsandchangeswithrespecttoSource:CGA,CEIC,MacquarieResearch,November2017filingprocedures.Macroimpact-negativeforthefiscalinthenearterm,positiveforinflationCPIinflationbelowRBI’smediumtargetandgrowthof

5、4%RiskoffiscalslippageinFY18rises:Thegovernment’sdecisiontolower16%HeadlineCPIinflationYoY%thetaxratefor178goods(to18%from28%earlier)isestimatedtoleadtoa14%CoreCPIInflation(CPIexrevenuelossofINR200bn(~0.1%ofGDP)onanannualizedbasis.Overthe12%FoodexFuel)10%CPIFoodinflationmediumterm,though,theimp

6、actofrevenuelossshouldbenullifiedwith8%highertaxcomplianceandwideningoftaxnet.Thisimplies~0.05%ofGDP6%impactfortheremainderofFY18.Recall,thegovernmentalsocutfueltaxes4%onpetrolanddieselinOct’17,whichisexpectedtolowertaxrevenuebyINR2%0%130bn(0.1%ofGDP)forFY18.Thislossinrevenuealongwithindirecttax

7、-2%revenuecollectionswhicharetrackinglowerthanbudgetedgrowth,lowerthanexpectedtransferofdividendfromRBIandfiscaldeficitwhichisalreadySep-12Mar-13Sep-13Mar-14Sep-14Mar-15Sep-15Mar-16Sep-16Mar-17Sep-17at91.3%offull-yeartarget,