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1、August2,201704:35PMGMTS.KoreaEconomicsMORGANSTANLEYASIA(SINGAPORE)PTE.DeyiTanECONOMISTAfterMinimumWage…NowDeyi.Tan@morganstanley.com+656834-6703MORGANSTANLEY&CO.INTERNATIONALPLC,SEOULBRANCHTaxHikesandTaxCreditsJinChoiECONOMISTJin.Choi1@morganstanley.com+8
2、22399-1408Taxhikesshouldnotderailtheeconomy,ifimplementedwithotherredistributivemeasures.Overall,focusingonproductivityimprovementwillgoalongerwayinsustainingExhibit1:Estimatedimpactontaxrevenue,comparedwithpreviousyear(KRWtrn)jobsandwages.7(KRWtrn)+5.176
3、+0.12+5.47-0.465-0.29What'snew:(1)Taxhikesandtaxcreditshavebeenproposed…:RedistributionIncomeTax(+2.19)4policies(fromlargecorporatestoSMEsandlow-incomehouseholds)havebeen3akeyfeatureofthenewadministration,andfurthermeasureshavebeenCorporateTax2proposed.Th
4、eseincludehighercorporatetaxrateandpersonalincometaxrate,(+2.56)+0.921aswellastaxcredits/deductionsforcompaniesthatcreatejobs(Exhibit2forOthers0(+0.71)details).20182019202020212022~cumulativetaxrevenueimpactvs.2017Recallthatsofar,a16%minimumwagehikepolicy
5、hasbeenannouncedfor2018Source:MinistryofStrategyandFinance,MorganStanleyResearch(seeKoreaEconomics:WillRedistributivePoliciesSpurConsumerSpending?JulNote;MOSFexpectstheproposedtaxrevisiontoaddKRW0.92trnin2018(vs.30th).Meanwhile,arecentlyapprovedKRW11trnsu
6、pplementarybudget(0.7%2017),addKRW5.17trnin2019(vs.2018),subtractKRW0.46trnin2020(vs.ofGDP)aimstosupportjobcreationandwages.2019),subtractKRW0.29trnin2021(vs.2020),andfinallyaddKRW0.12trnin2022andonward(vs.2021),totheoveralltaxrevenue.(2)…andarelikelytoha
7、veaKRW5.5trnnetrevenueimpact;Highincomeearnersandlargecorporatestobearthebrunt:AccordingtothedocumentreleasedbytheMinistryofStrategyandFinance(MOSF),thetaxrevisionmeasuresareprojectedtoaddKRW5.5trntototalannualgovernmentrevenueby2022.Thisis2.1%of2016budge
8、trevenueand0.3%of2016GDP.Cumulatively,thesemeasuresarelikelytoaddKRW23trn(1.4%of2016GDP)togovernmentrevenuebetween2018and2022(seeExhibit1forhowMOSFexpectsthenetcumulativegovernmentrevenueimpacttolookfrom2018to2022).
