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ID:5346546
大小:3.42 MB
页数:41页
时间:2017-12-08
《摩根斯丹利-中国金融整顿路线图-新平衡正在形成-2017.5.10-41页-》由会员上传分享,免费在线阅读,更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、FoundationMay10,201708:15AMGMTChina–FinancialsandEconomicsRoadmaptofinancialcleanup:anewbalanceinformationOurassessmentoffinancialsystemcleanupindicatesmorerationalcreditgrowthof13%in2017,ariseof60-70bpsinaverageinterestrates,manageableimpactoneconomicgrow
2、thandcreditquality,andhigherNIMforqualitybanks.Liquiditycrunchorover-tighteningappearsunlikelythistime.MorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinMorganStanleyResearch.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinteresttha
3、tcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMorganStanleyResearch.InvestorsshouldconsiderMorganStanleyResearchasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.Foranalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,refertotheDisclosureSection,locatedattheendofthisreport.+=A
4、nalystsemployedbynon-U.S.affiliatesarenotregisteredwithFINRA,maynotbeassociatedpersonsofthememberandmaynotbesubjecttoNASD/NYSErestrictionsoncommunicationswithasubjectcompany,publicappearancesandtradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearchanalystaccount.FoundationChina
5、–FinancialsandEconomicsRoadmaptofinancialcleanup:anewbalanceinformationOurassessmentoffinancialsystemcleanupindicatesIndustryViewmorerationalcreditgrowthof13%in2017,ariseof60-Attractive70bpsinaverageinterestrates,manageableimpactoneconomicgrowthandcreditqu
6、ality,andhigherNIMforqualitybanks.Liquiditycrunchorover-tighteningappearsunlikelythistime.Thecleanupwillcover~20%oftotalcreditsinChina:Webelieve4.Stillaround10%assetgrowthatmostsmalltomid-sizedthefollowingareaswillbethefocusofregulatoryexamination:banksdes
7、piteslowdownascostcontrolcouldhelpcushionNIMpressuresandshifttolowerriskassetsanddomestic1.Rmb28tnofnonstandardizedcreditassets(NSCAs)capitalraisingcouldcushioncapitalpressures.allocatedviaRmb48tn-plusofvariousassetmanagement5.Sentimentandexpectationchange
8、samongbanksinthechannels(aslaidoutinExhibit3).marketsarelargelydone.Themorevisibleimpactislargely2.~Rmb10tnoffundsinvestedinbondandequitymarkets.past.3.Understatedriskweighting,equaltoroughly8%ofbanks'6.Junea
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