摩根斯丹利-日本宏观经济-20170810-morganstanley-japaneconomiccalendarcanjapanreach3％growth

《摩根斯丹利-日本宏观经济-20170810-morganstanley-japaneconomiccalendarcanjapanreach3％growth》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。

1、August10,201705:25AMGMTJapanEconomicCalendarMORGANSTANLEYMUFGSECURITIESCO.,LTD.TakeshiYamaguchiECONOMISTTakeshi.Yamaguchi@morganstanleymufg.com+8136836-5404CanJapanReach3%Growth?ShokiOmoriRESEARCHASSOCIATEShoki.Omori@morganstanleymufg.com+8136836-5466Apr-JunGDPPreview:StrongGrowthOnDomesticDemand(Th

2、efollowingisanexcerptfrom'JapanEconomics:Apr-JunGDPPreview:StrongGrowthOnDomesticDemand'(31Jul2017),withsomedataupdated.Pleaseseethereportfordetails.)WeexpectrealGDPgrowthtohaveacceleratedinApr-Jun(Aug14),reflectingrobustfiguresforthedomesticdemanditemsofpublicinvestment,personalconsumption,andcapex

3、.FasterrealGDPgrowthinApr-Jun:WeexpectbriskrealGDPgrowthforApr-Jun(1stpreliminarydatatobereleasedAug14)at+3.0%QoQSAAR(+0.7%QoQ).Whileweanticipateapositivecontributionfrominventory,welookforfirmgrowthinfinaldemandexcludinginventoryaswelldrivenbyarecoveryindomesticdemand.Fiscalexpansiontofinallycomein

4、toplay:WeexpectverystrongQoQgrowthinpublicinvestmentratherthanjustaswingtopositiveterritorytoboostGDPgrowthinApr-Jun,givenstrongApr-Mayconstructionstatistics.PublicinvestmentdeclinedQoQforthethirdstraightquarteruptoJan-Mar2017duetodelaysinimplementationofthesecondsupplementarybudgetforFY2016(F3/17),

5、butweexpectthefiscalpolicyimpacttofinallyshowupinApr-JunGDP.Personalconsumption,capexsolidtoo:Personalconsumptionfinallystartedpickingupin2H2016afterongoingstagnationsincetheconsumptiontaxhikeinApril2014.WebelievepersonalconsumptioncontinuedtorisesteadilyinApr-Jun2017,chieflyasspendingondurablegoods

6、suchasautomobilesgainedmomentum.WealsoexpectfirmgrowthforcapexasApr-Junindustrialproductiondatashowsstronggrowthinshipmentsofcapitalgoods,whichisacoincidentindicatorofcapex.Webelievehighercapacityutilizationcombinedwithrisingwagesfromlabormarkettighteningisstartingtotranslatetoinvestmentinconstructi

7、onaswellasmachineryandequipment.Butcontributionfromnetexportstoturnnegative:Ontheotherhand,weexpectGDPgrowthinApr-Juntobedentedbyaswingtoanegativecontributionfromnetexports(exportslessimports)asexport