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《摩根斯丹利-中国宏观经济-出口疲软但仍处于反弹通道-20170808-morganstanley-chinaeconomics：exportssoftenedbutremainedrobust》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、August8,201708:40AMGMTChinaEconomicsMORGANSTANLEYASIALIMITEDJennyZheng,CFAECONOMISTJenny.L.Zheng@morganstanley.com+8523963-4015ExportsSoftenedButRemainedRobinXingECONOMISTRobin.Xing@morganstanley.com+8522848-6511RobustZhipengCaiECONOMISTZhipeng.Cai@morganstanley.com+8522239
2、-7820BottomLine:BothexportsandimportsgrowthdeceleratedandmissedmarketexpectationsinJuly.Beyondmonthlyvolatility,weexpectexternaldemandtoExhibit1:PerformanceofTradeandFXReservesremainrobust,andexportgrowthisontracktoreachourforecastof9%in2017Jul-17Jun-17May-17Apr-172016(vs.-
3、8%in2016).TradeBalance,US$bn46.742.840.537.5509.7Exports,US$bn193.6196.6191.0180.02,098YoY,%7.211.38.37.5-7.7MoM,SA,%(Customs)-1.13.7-0.37.8-TradegrowthslippedandmissedexpectationsinJuly:ExportgrowthsoftenedMoM,SAAR,%(MS)-37.234.95.5-36.3-QoQ,SAAR,%(MS)4.212.927.021.2-Bydes
4、tination,YoY,%to7.2%YoYinJulyfromanelevatedlevelof11.3%YoYinJune(ConsensusandUS8.919.811.711.7-5.1Japan6.65.53.713.3-4.7EU10.115.29.74.0-3.7MSe:11.0%YoY),draggedmainlybyslowerDMdemand.Thatsaid,theYTDASEAN4.1-0.43.75.2-5.3HongKong-3.6-7.3-10.6-15.3-12.1Korea3.610.910.20.7-5.
5、6growthwasstillrobustat8.3%YoY,ascomparedto-8%in2016.Meanwhile,Taiwan2.97.1-2.81.1-8.8Imports,US$bn146.9153.8150.2142.01,588YoY,%11.017.114.411.7-5.5importsgrowthmoderatedto11.0%YoYinJuly(vs.17.1%YoYinJune;Consensus:MoM,SA,%(Customs)-0.9-1.3-3.37.5-MoM,SAAR,%(MS)-49.5-7.012
6、9.6-59.2-QoQ,SAAR,%(MS)3.0-3.34.45.8-18.0%YoY;MSe:17.4%YoY),draggedbysteel,ironoreandauto.ThefasterpaceByproduct,YoY,%Mechanical&ElectricalProducts10.910.58.0-1.5-4.4UnwroughtCopper&Products30.210.97.5-17.4-9.6ofgrowthdecelerationinimportsthanexportsledtowidertradesurplus,t
7、oSteelProducts6.813.715.19.9-8.3PlasticsinPrimaryForms10.114.110.33.9-8.2CrudePetroleumOil11.833.350.350.1-14.0US$46.7bninJuly(vs.US$42.8bninJune).IronOre&Concentrates0.021.434.155.4-2.0FXReserves,US$bn3,0813,0573,0543,0303,011MonthlyChangeinFXReserves-6.0-5.83.64.4-291Pace
8、ofcapitaloutflowsremainedmanageable:FXreservesrosefasterthan(AdjustedforValuationE
