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1、August9,201706:11AMGMTChinaEconomicsMORGANSTANLEYASIALIMITEDJennyZheng,CFAECONOMISTJenny.L.Zheng@morganstanley.com+8523963-4015SteadyPPI,MutedCPIRobinXingECONOMISTRobin.Xing@morganstanley.com+8522848-6511ZhipengCaiECONOMISTBottomline:PPIYoYheldsteadyat5.5%forthethirdconsecutivemonthinJuly,Zh
2、ipeng.Cai@morganstanley.com+8522239-7820helpedbyimprovementinnon-commodityprices,whileCPIedgeddownonlowerfuelandhealthcarepricesYoY.WeretainourrelativelyconstructiveoutlookforcoreCPIandnon-commodityPPIonthebackofhealthyexternalExhibit1:SummaryofPriceDevelopmentsdemandanddomesticjobmarket.Ash
3、eadlineCPIwilllikelyremainclosetotheJul-17Jun-17May-172016ConsumerPriceIndex(CPI),%YoY1.41.51.52.0MoM,%,SAAR,MS0.21.53.5-lowerboundaryofthePBoC'scomfortzone,webelievepolicymakerswillMoM,%,NBS0.1-0.2-0.1-Food,%YoY-1.1-1.2-1.64.6MoM,%,SAAR,MS-1.70.312.5-maintainstableinterbankliquidity,whilere
4、gulatorytighteningcouldbebackinMoM,%,NBS-0.1-1.0-0.7-Non-food,%YoY2.02.22.31.4focus,particularlyafterthepartycongressinOctober.MoM,%,SAAR,MS0.91.10.9-MoM,%,NBS0.20.10.0-CoreCPI(excl.FoodandEnergy),%YoY2.12.22.11.6ProducerPriceIndex(PPI),%YoY5.55.55.5-1.3PPIstayedflatat5.5%YoYinJuly(vs.5.5%Yo
5、YinJune,ConsensusandMSe:Non-commodity2.52.32.3-0.9CommoditySub-index10.911.813.4-2.1--Oil8.414.424.5-10.85.6%),assequentialimprovementinbothcommodityandnon-commodityprices--Coal32.333.237.2-0.8--FerrousMetal12.411.914.0-3.0offsetthedragfromahighcomparisonbaselastyear.Thesequentiallyhigher--F
6、errousMetalSmelting&Pressing27.524.517.73.4--NonFerrousMetal10.713.213.52.6--NonFerrousMetalSmelting&Pressing12.713.913.6-1.6commodityPPI(0.1%inJulyvs.-1.1%inJune)wasledbymetalprices,likelyPPI,MoM,%,SAAR,MS3.9-2.1-6.1-PPI,MoM,%,NBS0.2-0.2-0.3-Non-commodity,MoM,%0.3-0.1-0.2-reflectingcontinue
7、dcapacitycontrolsandresilientinfrastructureandpropertyCommodity,MoM%0.1-1.1-1.0---Oil-3.6-2.7-0.8-activities,whilebetternon-commodityPPI(0.3%MoMinJulyvs.-0.1%MoMin--Coal-0.1-2.1-0.6---FerrousMetal0.8-3.8-4.1---FerrousMetalSmelting&Pressing2.70.4-1.
