麦格理-印度-宏观经济-古吉拉特邦保留，接下来是什 么

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1、INDIAIndiaEconomicsGujaratretained,whatnext?StateelectioncalendarBJPretainedGujaratandwoninHimachalPradeshstateelections:Withstateelectioncampaignsdominatingthepoliticaldiscourseinthelasttwomonths,thefinalresultstodaywereatthelowerendoftheexitpolls.TheelectionresultsforGujarataremoreimpor

2、tant,giventhatPMModihailsfromthestateandresultsweregoingtobeanalysedinthebackdropofpolicymeasuressuchasdemonetizationandimplementationofGST.BJPwinsGujaratwithfewerseatmargincomparedwith2012,withlossofseatsinruralareas:BJPwon99seats(aspertheElectionCommission,8pmIST)inthe2017stateelections

3、,lowerthanthetallyof115seatswonin2012.Specifically,theresultsindicatethatBJPhasfaredpoorlyintheruralareasinwhichitwon44ofthe98ruralseatsin2012.Encouragingly,thevoteSource:ElectionCommission,MacquarieResearch,December2017shareforBJProseto49.2%from48.3%in2012;however,thisisstilltrailingthepe

4、akofthe2014generalelections.UrbanvotersstillbackBJP,demonetization/GSTseemtobenon-issues:TheBJPmaintaineditsstrongholdinurbanareas,winningthree-fourthsoftheurbanseats,indicatingthatdemonetization/GSThavenotswayedvotersawayfromBJP.TakingSuratasanexample,asitisdominatedbysmallbusinessesmost

5、impactedbydemonetizationandGST,BJPwon15ofthe16seats.Whatdoesthisimplyforpolicyreform?Quietertimesahead,focustoshifttorural:WithBJPwinningboththestateelectionsinGujaratandHP,politicalstabilityhasbeenreinforced.However,asthewinningmarginhasnarrowedinGujaratwithapoorshowinginruralareas,weexp

6、ectitislikelythegovernmentwillfocusmoreontheruralandagriculturesectorwithmeasuressuchasMSPpricesformorecrops,bufferstockingforcropstradingbelowMSP,publicinvestmentinagriculturemainlyrelatedtostoragefacilitiesaswellashavingagreaterfocusonimplementationofruralinfrastructureprojects(ruralroad

7、s/ruralaffordablehousing).Focusbacktokeyeconomiceventsovernextthreemonths:WiththeGujaratelectioneventnowbehindus,focusshouldturnbacktoimportanteconomicevents–bankrecapitalization,theunionbudgetinearly-February,GSTcollections.Inourview,thefocusshouldbeonimplem