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1、Economics-DataReactions16August2017BankofThailandNoelanArbisAunanimousholdEconomistTheHongkongandShanghaiTheBankofThailand(BoT)helditsbenchmarkinterestratesteadyat1.5%,asBankingCorporationLimitedunanimouslyexpectedbyconsensus(includingHSBC).AlthoughheadlineCPI+85228
2、224325noelan.arbis@hsbc.com.hkreturnedtopositiveterritoryat0.2%y-o-y,membersoftheMonetaryPolicyCommittee(MPC)indicatedthatinflationwilllikelyreturntotheBoT’stargetband“laterthanexpected”(Reuters,16August2017).WeforecastnopolicyratechangeJosephfromtheBoTfortheremaind
3、eroftheyear,inlightofhighhouseholddebt.IncalcaterraFactsEconomistTheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimited-TheMPCmaintainedtheone-daybondrepurchaserateat1.5%inaunanimousdecision,+85228224687markingthe18thconsecutivevotetokeepthepolicyrateonhold.joseph.f.incalc
4、aterra@hsbc.com.hk-All28economistssurveyedbyBloombergpredictedthepolicyratedecision.ViewHSBCGlobalResearchat:http://www.research.hsbc.com-Afterthedecision,BoTofficialssaidthereiscurrently“noneedtocutratesfurther,”butalsoindicatedthatthecentralbankwill“closelymonitor
5、”theforeignexchangemarket,inlightoftheIssuerofreportBaht’scontinuedappreciation.TheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedImplicationsDisclosures&DisclaimerThisreportmustbereadwiththeWebelievetheBoTremainscomfortablyonholdinitspolicyratesettingdueprimarilytoris
6、ingdisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosurehouseholddebt.Householddebthassteadilyclimbedoverthepastfewyearsfromaround50%ofappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofitGDPin2007tonowhoveringaround80%(Figure1).Thusacutininterestrateatthisjuncturecouldi
7、ncentivizehigherhouseholdborrowing,whichcouldpresentfinancialstabilityconcerns.Creditcardsandunsecuredloans,inparticular,haverisenrecently,leadingtheThaigovernmenttoannouncenewmacroprudentialcontrols(Figure2).Effective1September,creditcardholdersearningbelowBHT50,00
8、0arenolongereligibletoreceivecreditlimitsoffivetimestheirmonthlyincomes.Thecreditlinefornewunsecuredpersonalloansforapplicantsearningbelow
