麦格里集团-宏观经济-macro monday atemporary sweet spot for cyclicals-20170710-macquarie

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1、CHINAMacroMondayInsideAtemporarysweetspotforcyclicalsMarket&SectorPerformance(MSCIChina)2InthefirstweekofJuly,MSCIChinadropped1%,duetoweaknessinthebankandtechsectors.Tencent,whichaccountsfor16%oftheindex,Activitydatawatch3dropped3.7%fortheweekamidaglobaltechstockcorre

2、ctionandthePolicywatch4controversyarounditsblockbustermobilegameHonorofKings.Meanwhile,Commoditiesspace5insurancestocksoutperformedduetotheriseofbondyieldsgloballyandmaterialsstocksalsoshoneonreboundingcommodityprices.Propertymarket6Liquiditytightenedgloballybutimprov

3、edonshore:In1H17,globalLiquiditywatch7liquiditywasquitesupportive,thankstothelower-than-expectedinflationExchangerate8readingseverywhereintheworld.ButChina’sonshoreliquiditywasprettyIndustrialindicators9tightduetofinancialregulations.Assuch,10-yeartreasuryyieldsintheUS

4、andChina,whichmovetogethermostofthetime,divergedinthepastsixChinainasnapshot10months(Fig36).Asaresult,OffshoreChinastockshaditsbest1Hsince2007andvastlyoutperformedOnshoreChinastocks.Entering2H17,DatareviewandpreviewOffshoreChinastartsfacingthepressureofrisinginterestra

5、tesastheFedDateIndicatorActualPrevCons.Macq.andtheECBaremovingtonormalizetheirpolicystances.Atthesametime,PreviewOnshoreChina,includingstocks,bondsandcommodities,haveallrebounded10,JulyCPI,yoy1.51.61.6sinceJuneoneasedconcernsonliquidity.10,JulyPPI,yoy5.55.55.613,JulyEx

6、ports,yoy8.79.09.0Atemporarysweetspotforcyclicals:Bothliquidityandgrowthsupport13,JulyImports,yoy14.814.013.0Tradebalance,cyclicalfornow.First,theliquidityconditioninChina’sfinancialsystemhas13,July414344bn$Newloans,bn,improvedsincelateMay(Fig33),aspolicymakersdon’twa

7、nttoseeanother10-15,July111013001350RMBcreditcrunchliketheoneinJune2013.Second,theeconomyturnsoutmore10-15,JulyM2,yoy9.69.59.5Reviewresilientthanexpected.InJune,thetrendofdisinflationanddestockingtookaCaixinbreath,evidencedbyhigherPMIreadingsandcommoditypricesincluding

8、03,JulyManufacturing50.449.649.8PMIironore,steel,coalandcopper(Fig19-23).Thatsaid,webelievethesweet07JulyFXreserves30