德银-中国-银行业-“如果”系列二——如果大银行筹集资金会怎样？

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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateHongKongChineseBanks22February2018Banking/FinanceBanksIndustryUpdateHansFan,CFAJackyZuo“Whatif”seriesII–WhatifbigbanksResearchAnalystResearchAnalyst(+852)22036353(+852)22036255raisecapital?hans.fan@db.comjacky.zuo@db.comApersistingco

2、ncern,butitisnotlikely,norabadthing;staypositiveEdwardDuPossiblecapitalraisingbybig-fourbankshasbeenamongthekeydiscussionResearchAssociatetopicswithinvestors,especiallywhenvaluationsapproach1xPB.Many(+852)22036185investorsarestillconcernedaboutmisuseofproceedstorecognizemoreb

3、adedward.du@db.comloansandpotentialdilution.However,webelievebigbanksareunlikelytoraisecommonequityinthenearterm,giventheirabilitytoself-generatecapitalToppickswithanROEof12-15%andlimitedregulatorypressure(c.300bpsbufferofCET-1).Thatsaid,evenifithappensthecapitalraisingwouldn

4、otnecessarilyBankofChina(3988.HK),HKD4.42Buybenegative.TheassetqualityofbigbanksisimprovingsothatstrongercapitalAgri.BankofChina(1288.HK),HKD4.49Buycouldstrengthenfinancialstability.Westaypositiveondeposit-fundedbanks.Source:DeutscheBankBase-casescenario:noneedtoraisecorecomm

5、onequityCompaniesFeaturedOurassumptionofnocapitalraisingisrootedinfourreasons:ICBC(1398.HK),HKD7.11BuyBigbanksareabletoself-generatecapital,astheirROEsof12-15%areChinaConstructionBankBuyhigherthantheminimumROEofc.11%requiredtosustainasset(0939.HK),HKD8.56expansion.Weforecast

6、bigbanks’CET-1ratiowillriseto12.7%in2019EAgri.BankofChina(1288.HK),HKD4.49BuyBankofChina(3988.HK),HKD4.42Buy(3Q17:12%).BankofCommunicationsBuy(3328.HK),HKD6.41Bigbanks’CET-1ratioisc.300bpshigherthantheminimumregulatoryChinaMerchantsBankHoldrequirement.TotalLoss-AbsorbingCapa

7、city(TLAC)likelykicksinseven(3968.HK),HKD33.95yearslater,andweexpectbigbankstomeetthetargetssmoothly.ChinaCITICBank(0998.HK),HKD6.00HoldChinaMinshengBank(1988.HK),HKD8.38HoldRWAdensity(RWA/totalassets)hasbeendecliningduetoashiftinloanCEB(6818.HK),HKD4.18Holdbooktowardsretail

8、loansandtheimplementationofinternal-rating-basedChongqingRuralBank(3