德银-中国-航空业-高空巡航，但要小心气流

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1、ChineseAirlinesDeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateChina10February2018ChineseAirlinesTransportationAirForecastChangeCruisingathighaltitudebutbewareofanyturbulenceVincentHa,CFAGovernmentpoliciesandFXtomeetwithsomeheadwindsResearchAnalystAstructuralchangeinfundamentalshascoin

2、cidedwitharadicalshiftininvestorflowsandownershipoftheHK-listedChineseairlines.Stockpriceshavesurged+852-22036247about46%inthreemonths(vs.HSCEI's1%appreciation)andvaluationshaveJoeLiew,CFAmovedtolevelsnotseenin2.5years.Thefundamentalfactorsofyield,capacityResearchAnalystcontrol,and

3、FXunderpinsignificantearningsrevisionsof4-24%anda1%uplift+81-3-5156-6725insustainablecoreRoEestimates;theseaccountformuchofourincreaseintargetmultiples.However,wehavealsoaccountedforSouthboundflowsinourFeiSun,CFAassessmentandretainaBuyonChinaEasternAirlines-H(CEA-H)andSpringResearch

4、AnalystAirlines.+852-22036130FXandyieldpolicypositives,butdon’tgetoverexcitedYukiLuNewregulatorypolicieswillrestricttheincreaseinflightslotstoaddressairportResearchAssociatecapacityconstraintsandthedelayproblems.Theliberalizationoffaresforsome+852-22035925domesticroutesisanothersig

5、nificantchange,improvingyieldsandprofitabilityacrossthesector.However,thegainwillbefarlessthanstockpricemovesKeyChangeshaveimpliedandyieldimprovementwillbebothgradualandmoderate;weCompanyTargetPriceRatingassumeadomesticyieldupliftofonlyabout2pptfromthesefactors.AsforRMB601021.SS41.2

6、0to42.10-appreciation,thiscouldaddroughlyRMB3bntotheBigThree'sFY18Eearnings600115.SS4.50to5.65-(ofRMB21bn),butonlyiftheFXratestayswhereitisnow.0670.HK4.95to6.80-600029.SS5.95to7.70-AssessingtheSouthboundaffect0753.HK7.30to10.05-Morethanone-thirdofChineseairlines’Hsharefree-floatisno

7、wheldby601111.SS6.65to8.40-Southboundinvestors,whodictatemorethan30%ofdailytradeintheshares1055.HK6.85to9.20-Source:DeutscheBank(seeouranalysisonpage14).Forthesebuyers,theH-sharesremainatmorethana30%discounttotheA-shares,stillaverystrongincentiveevenaftertherallyinCompaniesfeature

8、drecentmonths.Thisinfluencecannotb