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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateHongKongChinesebanks20November2017Banking/FinanceBanksBreakingNewsHansFan,CFAJackyZuoAssetManagementGuideline–ResearchAnalystResearchAnalyst(+852)22036353(+852)22036255ReshapingChina’sshadowbankinghans.fan@db.comjacky.zuo@db
2、.comLong-awaitedassetmanagementguidance,along-termpositiveforChinaEdwardDuChinareleasedtheconsultativedraftforTheGuidelineonAssetManagementResearchAssociateBusinesses.Targetingthefast-growingassetmanagementsector,anessential(+852)22036185partofshadowbanking,itpropose
3、scappingleverage,reducingdurationedward.du@db.commismatch,cuttingdownSPVlayersandremovingimplicitguarantees.Weviewitasavitalstepincontinuingfinancialdeleveraging.Nearterm,weseeToppickslimitedimpactonliquidity,astheregulationsarelargelyexpectedandthereisa19mgraceperio
4、d.But,weseeitasaL/Tpositive,asitraisestransparencyBankofChina(3988.HK),HKD3.78Buyandcapsthegrowthinshadowbanking.WeexpectdivergentimpactonAgri.BankofChina(1288.HK),HKD3.62Buybanks,asitfavoursbigbankswhileaddingpressuretosmallerones.ChinaConstructionBankBuy(0939.HK),H
5、KD6.81Howbigistheassetmanagementsectorandwhatarethekeyrisks?Source:DeutscheBankChina’sassetmanagementsectorincludesassetmanagementplansissuedbydifferentfinancialinstitutions.AccordingtothePBOC,totalAUMamountedtoCompaniesFeaturedRmb102trasof2016(or137%ofGDP),or50%CAGR
6、since2011.WeICBC(1398.HK),HKD6.19BuyestimatethecreditchanneledthroughtheassetmanagementsectorhasChinaConstructionBankBuycontributed80%ofshadowbankingcredit,orc.18%ofsystemcredit.Whileit(0939.HK),HKD6.81supportedeconomicgrowth,theproliferationoftheassetmanagementsecto
7、rAgri.BankofChina(1288.HK),HKD3.62Buydoescomeatacost,withkeyrisksincluding:1)liquidityrisksduetodurationBankofChina(3988.HK),HKD3.78Buymismatch;2)contagionrisksgivenmultiplelayersofSPVsandrisingleverage;BankofCommunicationsBuy3)under-capitalizationandunder-provisioni
8、ng;and4)implicitguarantees,(3328.HK),HKD5.82whichlifttheactualriskfreerateanddeepenmoralhazardissues.ChinaMerchantsBankHold(3968.HK
