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《德银-中国-银行业-又一个大银行基本面改善的季度-20171101-deutsche_bank-chinese_banksanother_quarter_of_fundamental_improvement_for_big_banks》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateChinaChineseBanks1November2017Banking/FinanceBanksResultsHansFan,CFAJackyZuoAnotherquarteroffundamentalResearchAnalystResearchAnalyst(+852)22036353(+852)22036255improvementforbigbankshans.fan@db.comjacky.zuo@db.comBigbanks'PPOPinline,withNIMexpansionand
2、stableassetqualityEdwardDuThebig4Chinesebanksreported3Q17PPoPup9%yoy(2Q17:8%),inlineResearchAssociatewithourforecasts:asolidsetofresults,asevidencedbycontinuedNIM(+852)22036185expansion(up5bpsqoq),stableNPLformationandstrongerprovisionedward.du@db.comcoverage.Thequalitydifferencebetweenthebig4an
3、dotherbankshaswidenedfurther,thelattershowingweakfundingstrengthandinferiorassetToppicksquality.Amongthebigbanks,CCBandABCdeliveredrelativelystrongerresults.WeseeBOC'snumbersassolid,withlessNPLformationandtheBankofChina(3988.HK),HKD3.89BuystrongestNIIgrowth,whichdidn'twarrantthesharepricecorrect
4、iontoday.Agri.BankofChina(1288.HK),HKD3.67BuyStrongerNIIgrowthforbigbanksgivenstrongdepositfranchiseChinaConstructionBankBuy(0939.HK),HKD6.96Fundingstrengthremainskeydifferentiator,leadingdivergenttrendsinnetSource:DeutscheBankinterestincome(NII)growth(Fig3).Giventheirstrongdepositfranchise,bigb
5、ankswereabletorecordlargelystablefundingcosts.Asnetinterbanklenders,theyalsobenefitedfromhighermarketrates.Hence,theirNIMwasbetterthanexpected,+5bpsqoq.Withstableassetgrowth,bigbanks'NIIWevalueChinesebanksusingathree-stagegrowthacceleratedto13.3%yoy.However,otherbankswerehitbyfundingGGM(PV=(ROE-
6、g)/(COE-g)),withtargetpressureandtighterregulations.Thesesmallerbanksareheavilyreliantonpricesbasedon2017Ebookvalues.wholesalefunding,whichwere33%ofliabilities(Fig7).Assuch,thehigherDownsiderisks:large-scaleDES,over-marketrateshavepusheduptheirfundingcosts(Fig6).Reflectingtightertighteningandpro
7、pertypricecorrection.rules,smallerbankswereforcedtoscalebackon-B/Sshadowbanking(i.e.Upsiderisks:SOEreformsandremovalorreceivableinvestment),resultingindepositdeclines,uppingtheirfundingcost.softeningofGDPtargeting.Seepp.8–9.
