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1、FinanceandEconomicsDiscussionSeriesDivisionsofResearch&StatisticsandMonetaryA airsFederalReserveBoard,Washington,D.C.QuantitativeEasingandtheNewNormal"inMonetaryPolicyMichaelT.Kiley2018-004Pleasecitethispaperas:Kiley,MichaelT.(2018).QuantitativeEasingandtheNewNormal"inMoneta
2、ryPolicy,"FinanceandEconomicsDiscussionSeries2018-004.Washington:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem,https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2018.004.NOTE:Sta workingpapersintheFinanceandEconomicsDiscussionSeries(FEDS)arepreliminarymaterialscirculatedtostimulatediscussionandcritica
3、lcomment.Theanalysisandconclusionssetfortharethoseoftheauthorsanddonotindicateconcurrencebyothermembersoftheresearchsta ortheBoardofGovernors.ReferencesinpublicationstotheFinanceandEconomicsDiscussionSeries(otherthanacknowledgement)shouldbeclearedwiththeauthor(s)toprotecttheten
4、tativecharacterofthesepapers.QuantitativeEasingandthe“NewNormal”inMonetaryPolicy*MichaelT.KileyVersion9January2,2018ABSTRACTInterestratesmayremainlowandfalltotheireffectivelowerbound(ELB)often.Asaresult,quantitativeeasing(QE),inwhichcentralbanksexpandtheirbalancesheettolowerlon
5、g-terminterestrates,maycomplementpolicyapproachesfocusedonadjustmentsinshort-terminterestrates.Simulationresultsusingalarge-scalemodel(FRB/US)suggestthatQEdoesnotimproveeconomicperformanceifthesteady-stateinterestrateishigh,confirmingthatsuchpolicieswerenotadvantageousfrom1960t
6、o2007.However,QEcanoffsetasignificantportionoftheadverseeffectsoftheELBwhentheequilibriumrealinterestrateislow.Theseimprovementsineconomicperformanceexceedthoseassociatedwithmoderateincreasesintheinflationtarget.ActiveQEisprimarilyrequiredwhennominalinterestratesareneartheELB,p
7、ointingtobenefitswithinthemodelfromQEasasecondarytoolwhilerelyingonshort-terminterestratesastheprimarytool.JELCodes:E52,E47,E37Keywords:MonetaryPolicy,InterestRates,MacroeconomicModelsACKNOWLEDGMENTSAnyerrorsarethesoleresponsibilityoftheauthor.Anearlydraftbenefittedfromcomments
8、byDaveReifschneider,KatieRha,andparticipantsintheMoney
