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1、ConflictwithChinaRevisitedProspects,Consequences,andStrategiesforDeterrenceJamesDobbins,AndrewScobell,EdmundJ.Burke,DavidC.Gompert,DerekGrossman,EricHeginbotham,HowardJ.ShatzSummarySixyearsago,theRANDCorporationreviewedtheprospectsforwarbetweentheUnite
2、dStatesandChina.PossibletheatersofconflictweretheKoreanPeninsula,Taiwan,Japan,theSouthChinaSea,cyberspace,andIndia.Weconcludedthat,whilearmedconflictbetweenthetwocountrieswasnotlikely,thepossibilitywasrealenoughtorequireprudentpoliciesandeffectivedete
3、rrentmeasures.WealsocautionedthatthosemeasureswouldbecomemoredemandingasChinesecapabilitiesgrew.FortheUnitedStates,thiswouldmeanassuminggreaterrisksinthefuturetoachievethesameobjectivesasinthepast.Eventssincehaveconfirmedthesejudgments.Therangeandcapa
4、bilitiesofChineseairandseadefenseshavecontinuedtogrow,makingU.S.forward-basingmorevulnerableandthedirectdefenseofU.S.interestsintheregionpotentiallymorecostly.Asthesetrendscontinue,theUnitedStateswillfinditselfgraduallypushedmoretowardthethreatofhoriz
5、ontalorverticalescalationfordeterrence,withtheattendantrisksofcounter-escalation.NeithertheUnitedStatesnorChinaislikelytoemploynuclearweapons,butevenaninitiallylocalizedconflictcouldquicklyspreadintotheeconomic,cyber,andspacerealms,doingconsiderableda
6、magetobothsides.TheUnitedStatesmaybeabletoreduceordelaysuchrelianceonescalatoryresponsesbyshiftingtolessvulnerableplatforms:longer-rangeprecision-strikedronesandvesselstocarrylonger-rangedronesandsubmarines,alongwiththefurtherdispersalofbasesandforcef
7、lows.TheUnitedStatescanalsoencourageandhelpalliesandpartnersintheregiontoincreasetherangeandcapabilitiesoftheirownairandseadefenses.Barringunforeseentechnologicaldevelopments,however,itwillnotbepossiblefortheUnitedStatestorelyindefinitelyonthedirectde
8、fenseofitsregionalinterests.UnlessChinacommitsnakedandlarge-scaleaggression—which,tobeclear,isnotindicatedbythecurrentpatternofitsuseofforce—theUnitedStateswilllikelywanttofocusondeescalatinglocalizedclashesandremovingbonesofcontention.Werecom
