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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaStrategyDateSouthKoreaKoreaStrategy22September2017StrategyUpdateJeehoonParkEmilyYiPoisedtomarchonoverthewallofResearchAnalystResearchAnalyst(+82)23168908(+82)23168913worryjeehoon.park@db.comemily.yi@db.comNewtargetof2,600;techandbanksremainourmostpref
2、erredsectorsWethinkKOSPIwillcontinueitsuptrendWeraiseourKOSPItargetto2,600fromtheprevious2,500,onthebackofahigherEPSoutlookfor2018.Webelieve2018isshapinguptobeastrongeryearthanwehadanticipated.Webelieverevenuegrowthcanbemaintainedatthecurrentpaceof6-7%perannumin2018becauseofhigherp
3、rices(tech)andalowbase(autos,consumer).Combinedwiththerevenues,wethinkoperatingleverageshouldfurtherexpandOPmarginstoover12%in2018fromanestimated11%in2017.Despitethis,theKOSPIhasbeenoneoftheunderperformersintheregionduringthepasttwomonths,whichwemostlyattributetogeopoliticaleventst
4、hatareunlikelytodevelopintoamajorcrisis.RevenuegrowthtocontinuetodriveupKOSPIearningsin2018WebelieveKOSPIearningswillcontinuetobesolidin2018atc.8%YoYnetprofitgrowth,althoughthepacewouldmoderatefromac.45%increasein2017.Thisismuchbetterthantheprojectionsmadeearlierintheyear–weSource:
5、DeutscheBank,Wisefnhadexpectedc.25%YoYgrowthin2017andc.7%in2018,basedonconsensusandDBanalystestimates.WeexpectthistobeachievablethroughPERdiscountoverlyexcessivestrongearningsmomentumbeingmaintainedintechonthebackofstrongermemoryprices,andalsoduetoabottomingoutforautosandconsumerso
6、nthebackofalowbaseeffect.TechandbanksremainourmostpreferredsectorsAlthoughtechandbankshavebeenourmostpreferredsectorsforclosetoayear,webelieveit’sstillearlytochange.Upwardearningsrevisionmomentumremainsrobust,withtechbeingdrivenbystrongermemorypricesandbankssupportedfromongoingNIMe
7、xpansionandlowcreditcosts.Inaddition,valuationsstillindicateampleupside,with12mforwardP/Eatbelow10-yearaveragelevels.Wealsobelievethere’smoreroomforconsensusupwardearningsrevisionsinbothsectors.OurtoppicksareSEC,SKHynix,andKB.Stillearlytobuythelaggards:autos,consumer,utilityWethink
8、it’sstillearlytochasethela
