资源描述:
《巴黎银行-土耳其-宏观经济-先发制人不可松懈》由会员上传分享,免费在线阅读,更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、Turkey:Nopre-emptiveeasingH.ErkinIşık,CFAAttheMPCmeetingtoday,18January,theCBRTleftthelateliquiditywindowrateTurkEkonomiBankA.S.unchangedat12.75%,inlinewithourcallandthemarketconsensus,followingaFX&IRCEEMEAStrategist50bphikeatDecember’smeeting.Thestatementhighlightedthatthecentralb
2、ankwilllookthroughthedeclineinheadlineinflationthatwillbetheresultofbaseeffectsinthecomingmonths,sogaveforwardguidancethatitwillnoteasemonetarypolicypre-emptively.WethinkinflationexpectationswereanimportantfactorintheCBRT’sdecisionandthatitwillwaitforexpectedinflationafter24months,w
3、hichcurrentlystandsat8.2%y/y,tofalltoaround7%beforeeasingmonetarypolicy.TheCBRTkeepsratesunchangedTheCentralBankoftheRepublicofTurkey(CBRT)leftthelateliquiditywindow(LLW)rateunchangedat12.75%atitsMonetaryPolicyCommittee(MPC)meetingtoday,inlinewithourcallandthemarketconsensus,followin
4、ga50bphikeatDecember’smeeting.Allothercorridorrateswerealsounchanged.AstheCBRTis,inourview,likelytocontinuetoprovideallfundingthroughtheLLW,theaveragerepofundingrateshouldalsoremainat12.75%(Chart1).Inthenotereleasedwiththedecision,theCBRTcontinuedtosaythatthecurrentelevatedlevelsofin
5、flationandinflationexpectationsposeriskstopricingbehaviour.Italsosaidthatitwillmaintainitstightstanceuntilinflationandtheinflationoutlookimprovesignificantly“independentofbaseeffectsandtemporaryfactors”(withthisquotedcommentanewaddition)andbecomeconsistentwithtargets.Wehavebeenhighli
6、ghtingthatheadlineinflationwilldeclinetoaround10.5%y/yinJanuaryandfallfurthertoaround10%inthefollowingmonths,downfrom13%inNovember2017.However,thisdeclineismostlyrelatedtobaseeffectswhichtheCBRThasnowsaiditwilllookthrough,waitingforamorelastingimprovementintheinflationoutlook.Long-te
7、rminflationexpectationswillbekeyIntheCBRT’sJanuarySurveyofExpectations,expectedinflationafter12monthsdeclinedbyasmall6bpto9.24%butthatafter24monthsdroppedbyamoresignificant24bpto8.23%.However,theseratesremainwellabovetheinflationtargetat5%,eventakingaccountthe2ppuncertaintybandaround
8、thistarget.W